Recent polls from mid-April, such as CNT/MDA and Genial/Quaest, show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election by narrow margins under 10%, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% (39%) or 5-10% (22.5%) victories, with Flávio Bolsonaro <5% (19%) as a close contender. Lula's incumbency advantage sustains his first-round edge amid fragmented opposition, while Flávio's surge—closing gaps in runoff scenarios via the enduring Bolsonaro brand—reflects voter frustration with economic stagnation and fuels tight-margin pricing. Lower probabilities for Renan Santos (5.3%) or others highlight the likely duopoly forcing a runoff, with upcoming campaign events poised to tip balances in this closely contested race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Eleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Lula da Silva <5% 40%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 23%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 7.3%
$221,374 Vol.
$221,374 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
23%
Lula da Silva <5%
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
19%
Vitória de Renan Santos
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
1%
Outro
5%
Lula da Silva <5% 40%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 23%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 19%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+ 7.3%
$221,374 Vol.
$221,374 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,822 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,626 Vol.
3%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
$6,098 Vol.
23%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,985 Vol.
40%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,126 Vol.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$1,339 Vol.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$2,760 Vol.
19%
Vitória de Renan Santos
$199,272 Vol.
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
$790 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
$1,024 Vol.
1%
Outro
$1,532 Vol.
5%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-April, such as CNT/MDA and Genial/Quaest, show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election by narrow margins under 10%, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% (39%) or 5-10% (22.5%) victories, with Flávio Bolsonaro <5% (19%) as a close contender. Lula's incumbency advantage sustains his first-round edge amid fragmented opposition, while Flávio's surge—closing gaps in runoff scenarios via the enduring Bolsonaro brand—reflects voter frustration with economic stagnation and fuels tight-margin pricing. Lower probabilities for Renan Santos (5.3%) or others highlight the likely duopoly forcing a runoff, with upcoming campaign events poised to tip balances in this closely contested race.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$221,374Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from mid-April, such as CNT/MDA and Genial/Quaest, show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election by narrow margins under 10%, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% (39%) or 5-10% (22.5%) victories, with Flávio Bolsonaro <5% (19%) as a close contender. Lula's incumbency advantage sustains his first-round edge amid fragmented opposition, while Flávio's surge—closing gaps in runoff scenarios via the enduring Bolsonaro brand—reflects voter frustration with economic stagnation and fuels tight-margin pricing. Lower probabilities for Renan Santos (5.3%) or others highlight the likely duopoly forcing a runoff, with upcoming campaign events poised to tip balances in this closely contested race.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$221,374Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from mid-April, such as CNT/MDA and Genial/Quaest, show incumbent President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election by narrow margins under 10%, driving trader consensus toward Lula da Silva <5% (39%) or 5-10% (22.5%) victories, with Flávio Bolsonaro <5% (19%) as a close contender. Lula's incumbency advantage sustains his first-round edge amid fragmented opposition, while Flávio's surge—closing gaps in runoff scenarios via the enduring Bolsonaro brand—reflects voter frustration with economic stagnation and fuels tight-margin pricing. Lower probabilities for Renan Santos (5.3%) or others highlight the likely duopoly forcing a runoff, with upcoming campaign events poised to tip balances in this closely contested race.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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