Recent polls from late March 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 38%, 3.5% margin) and Gerp (38% to 36%, 2% margin), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with neither approaching the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. This tightening race—narrowing from wider gaps in early March—drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva's victory by under 5% (36%) or Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5% (25%), reflecting Flávio's surge fueled by his father's endorsement and voter frustration with economic pressures. Upcoming campaign events and regional dynamics in swing states could further shift these closely contested probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoEleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Eleições presidenciais no Brasil: Margem de Vitória
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.5%
$207,963 Vol.
$207,963 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
4%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
25%
Vitória de Renan Santos
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
2%
Outro
8%
Lula da Silva <5% 36%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 25%
Lula da Silva 5–10% 18%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 7.5%
$207,963 Vol.
$207,963 Vol.
4 out 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$3,590 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$1,470 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 5–10%
$3,280 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$1,653 Vol.
36%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$796 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$831 Vol.
8%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$1,699 Vol.
25%
Vitória de Renan Santos
$192,857 Vol.
5%
Vitória de Tarcisio de Freitas
$559 Vol.
<1%
Vitória de Ratinho Júnior
$846 Vol.
2%
Outro
$981 Vol.
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 38%, 3.5% margin) and Gerp (38% to 36%, 2% margin), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with neither approaching the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. This tightening race—narrowing from wider gaps in early March—drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva's victory by under 5% (36%) or Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5% (25%), reflecting Flávio's surge fueled by his father's endorsement and voter frustration with economic pressures. Upcoming campaign events and regional dynamics in swing states could further shift these closely contested probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volume
$207,963Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls from late March 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 38%, 3.5% margin) and Gerp (38% to 36%, 2% margin), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with neither approaching the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. This tightening race—narrowing from wider gaps in early March—drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva's victory by under 5% (36%) or Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5% (25%), reflecting Flávio's surge fueled by his father's endorsement and voter frustration with economic pressures. Upcoming campaign events and regional dynamics in swing states could further shift these closely contested probabilities.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$207,963Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from late March 2026, including Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 38%, 3.5% margin) and Gerp (38% to 36%, 2% margin), show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a slim first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with neither approaching the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. This tightening race—narrowing from wider gaps in early March—drives trader consensus toward Lula da Silva's victory by under 5% (36%) or Flávio Bolsonaro by under 5% (25%), reflecting Flávio's surge fueled by his father's endorsement and voter frustration with economic pressures. Upcoming campaign events and regional dynamics in swing states could further shift these closely contested probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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