Probabilidades e previsões das eleições intercalares 2026

$6.4K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

88% de probabilidade de não

-6.5%

NOVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

82% de probabilidade de não

+1.0%

NOVO

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

96% de probabilidade de sim

-0.1%

$4M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

70% de probabilidade de não

-4.5%

$6.4K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

88% de probabilidade de não

-6.5%

NOVO

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

82% de probabilidade de não

+1.0%

Maiores corridas

mercados mais decisivos

ME Senate

66% Democrata

AK Governor

67% Republicano

$635K Vol

TX Senate

50% Democrata

$372K Vol

AK Senate

59% Democrata

$164K Vol

IA Senate

50% Democrata

ME Senate

66% Democrata

AK Governor

67% Republicano

$635K Vol

TX Senate

50% Democrata

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

Todas as corridas

529 mercados

Corrida

Estado

Fav

Nível

A mostrar 25 de 50 mercados

Probabilidades intercalares 2026

Probabilidades das eleições intercalares 2026 — Probabilidades ao vivo do mercado de previsões
Mercado	Principais candidatos e nomeados	Probabilidades ao vivo
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	93%
	Steve Hilton	6%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	29%
	Bernadette Wilson	28%
	Treg Taylor	20%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	11%
	David Bronson	8%
	Click Bishop	4%
	Bill Walker	4%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Shelley Hughes	1%
	Mary Peltola	1%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Democrat	68%
	Republican	34%
Texas Senate Election Winner	Ken Paxton (R)	53%
	James Talarico (D)	50%
MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner	Donavan McKinney	85%
	Shri Thanedar	16%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Wesley Bell	68%
	Cori Bush	33%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	96%
	Dan Bilzerian	1%
Iowa Senate Election Winner	Ashley Hinson (R)	56%
	Josh Turek (D)	44%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Democrat	67%
	Republican	33%
MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	William Lawrence	94%
	Bridget Brink	4%
	Matt Maasdam	2%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	80%
	Independent	19%
	Democrat	1%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Democrat	90%
	Republican	11%
North Carolina Senate Election Winner	Roy Cooper (D)	89%
	Michael Whatley (R)	12%
MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner	Christina Hines	91%
	Eric Chung	7%
	Tim Greimel	1%
Florida Senate Election Winner	Republican	90%
	Democrat	11%
MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner	Jeremy Moss	89%
	Aisha Farooqi	9%
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrat	79%
	Republican	21%
AL-01 Republican Primary Winner	Jerry Carl	95%
	Rhett Marques	5%
	John Mills	4%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrat	84%
	Republican	17%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Republican	87%
	Democrat	14%
MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Callie Barr	75%
	Kyle Blomquist	25%
Oregon Governor Election Winner	Democrat	86%
	Republican	16%
Mississippi Senate Election Winner	Republican	92%
	Democrat	9%
MI-10 Republican Primary Winner	Mike Bouchard	97%
	Justin Kirk	3%
	Robert Lulgjuraj	1%
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner	Michael Carbonara	77%
	Belinda Keiser	14%
	Casey Askar	11%
FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner	Debbie Wasserman Schultz	76%
	Elijah Manley	24%
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	Bush 4–8%	28%
	Bell 4–8%	28%
	Bell <4%	18%
	Bush <4%	5%
	Bell 16%+	3%
	Bush 12–16%	1%
	Bush 8–12%	1%
	Bell 8–12%	1%
	Bell 12–16%	1%
TN-05 Republican Primary Winner	Andy Ogles	71%
	Charlie Hatcher	27%
VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Shannon Taylor	96%
	Salaam Bhatti	1%
	Tim Cywinski	1%
	Ericka Kopp	1%
MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Hartzell Gray	86%
	Jordan Herrera	12%
	Jeanette Cass	2%
	G Rick	1%
MO-06 Republican Primary Winner	Chris Stigall	83%
	Nathan Willett	17%
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner	Keith Gross	64%
	Austin Rogers	16%
	Evan Power	11%
	Lee Jones	4%
	Jim Norton	4%
	Nick Lewis	1%
	Luke Murphy	1%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	86%
	Oliver Larkin	14%
WI-03 Democratic Primary Winner	Rebecca Cooke	92%
	Emily Berge	3%
VA-09 Democratic Primary Winner	Joy Powers	61%
	Adam Murphy	35%
	Doug Crockett	5%
FL-11 Republican Primary Winner	Joe Strada	63%
	Carey Baker	21%
	Tim Wilkins	7%
	Ivette Palomo	1%
HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner	Ed Case	55%
	Jarrett Keohokalole	42%
	Jennifer Booker	2%
	Nicholas Kiswanto	2%
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	McKinney 16%+	29%
	Thanedar 16%+	24%
	McKinney 8–12%	16%
	McKinney 4–8%	15%
	McKinney 12–16%	14%
	McKinney <4%	7%
	Thanedar 4–8%	6%
	Thanedar 12–16%	4%
	Thanedar 8–12%	1%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Yen Bailey	45%
	Amanda Green	33%
	Brice Barnes	7%
	Nic Zateslo	7%
Arkansas Governor Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	2%
Oregon Senate Election Winner	Democrat	97%
	Republican	4%
FL-24 Democratic Primary Winner	Oliver Gilbert	54%
	Shevrin Jones	39%
	Kendrick Meek Jr.	6%
	Roderick Vereen	1%
FL-05 Republican Primary Winner	John Rutherford	98%
	Mark Kaye	2%
FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bale Dalton	93%
	Marialana Kinter	7%
	Alan Grayson	2%
MO-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Fred Wellman	96%
	Joan VonDras	3%
	Nick Vivio	2%
	Tim Bilash	1%
MN-05 Republican Primary Winner	Dalia Al-Aqidi	66%
	John Nagel	33%
	Abbey Zieska	2%
	Angie Windhauser	1%
FL-27 Democratic Primary Winner	Eliott Rodriguez	88%
	Robin Peguero	11%
VA-08 Democratic Primary Winner	Don Beyer	97%
	Lorena Thorne Bruner	1%
	Mo Seifeldein	1%
FL-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Eric Yonce	70%
	Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera	28%
	Robert Cooper	3%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	30%

93%

Steve Hilton

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Maine Senate Election Winner Democrat

68%

Texas Senate Election Winner Ken Paxton (R)

34%

53%

James Talarico (D)

50%

MI-13 Democratic Primary Winner Donavan McKinney

85%

Shri Thanedar

16%

MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner Wesley Bell

68%

Cori Bush

33%

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

96%

Dan Bilzerian

Iowa Senate Election Winner Ashley Hinson (R)

56%

Josh Turek (D)

44%

Michigan Senate Election Winner Democrat

67%

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner William Lawrence

33%

94%

Bridget Brink

Matt Maasdam

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

Georgia Senate Election Winner Democrat

90%

North Carolina Senate Election Winner Roy Cooper (D)

11%

89%

Michael Whatley (R)

12%

MI-10 Democratic Primary Winner Christina Hines

91%

Eric Chung

Tim Greimel

Florida Senate Election Winner Republican

90%

MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner Jeremy Moss

11%

89%

Aisha Farooqi

Arizona Governor Election Winner Democrat

79%

AL-01 Republican Primary Winner Jerry Carl

21%

95%

Rhett Marques

John Mills

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Democrat

84%

Texas Governor Election Winner Republican

17%

87%

MI-01 Democratic Primary Winner Callie Barr

14%

75%

Kyle Blomquist

25%

Oregon Governor Election Winner Democrat

86%

Mississippi Senate Election Winner Republican

16%

92%

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner Mike Bouchard

97%

Justin Kirk

Robert Lulgjuraj

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner Michael Carbonara

FL-20 Democratic Primary Winner Debbie Wasserman Schultz

76%

Elijah Manley

24%

MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory Bush 4–8%

TN-05 Republican Primary Winner Andy Ogles

71%

Charlie Hatcher

27%

VA-01 Democratic Primary Winner Shannon Taylor

MO-04 Democratic Primary Winner Hartzell Gray

MO-06 Republican Primary Winner Chris Stigall

83%

Nathan Willett

17%

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner Keith Gross

FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner Jared Moskowitz

86%

Oliver Larkin

14%

WI-03 Democratic Primary Winner Rebecca Cooke

92%

Emily Berge

VA-09 Democratic Primary Winner Joy Powers

FL-11 Republican Primary Winner Joe Strada

HI-01 Democratic Primary Winner Ed Case

MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory McKinney 16%+

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Yen Bailey

Arkansas Governor Election Winner Republican

95%

Oregon Senate Election Winner Democrat

97%