With term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy out, Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of 18 candidates, mostly Republicans, fueling trader consensus on a tight top-four nonpartisan primary August 18 ahead of ranked-choice general election voting. Tom Begich leads at 24.5% implied probability after consolidating Democrats, aligning with February Lake Research Partners polling showing him at 22% first-round support amid 23% undecideds, while Bernadette Wilson (20.5%), Treg Taylor (16.3%), and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (12.5%) trail in a GOP vote split. A March 30 Mat-Su forum spotlighted contrasts on resource development, education, and veterans issues among seven participants, including the top four, but no breakout momentum emerged. Consolidation before June 1 filing deadline, endorsements, or fresh polls could create separation in this chaotic contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTom Begich 25%
Bernadette Wilson 21%
Treg Taylor 16.3%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 13%
$739,951 Vol.
$739,951 Vol.

Tom Begich
25%

Bernadette Wilson
21%

Treg Taylor
16%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
13%

Nancy Dahlstrom
11%

Click Bishop
6%

David Bronson
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Bruce Walden
2%

Matt Heilala
2%

Edna DeVries
1%

Shelley Hughes
1%

Adam Crum
1%

Lisa Murkowski
1%

Hank Kroll
<1%

Matt Claman
<1%

James Parkin
<1%
Tom Begich 25%
Bernadette Wilson 21%
Treg Taylor 16.3%
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 13%
$739,951 Vol.
$739,951 Vol.

Tom Begich
25%

Bernadette Wilson
21%

Treg Taylor
16%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
13%

Nancy Dahlstrom
11%

Click Bishop
6%

David Bronson
4%

Mary Peltola
3%

Bruce Walden
2%

Matt Heilala
2%

Edna DeVries
1%

Shelley Hughes
1%

Adam Crum
1%

Lisa Murkowski
1%

Hank Kroll
<1%

Matt Claman
<1%

James Parkin
<1%
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...With term-limited Gov. Mike Dunleavy out, Alaska's open 2026 gubernatorial race features a fragmented field of 18 candidates, mostly Republicans, fueling trader consensus on a tight top-four nonpartisan primary August 18 ahead of ranked-choice general election voting. Tom Begich leads at 24.5% implied probability after consolidating Democrats, aligning with February Lake Research Partners polling showing him at 22% first-round support amid 23% undecideds, while Bernadette Wilson (20.5%), Treg Taylor (16.3%), and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (12.5%) trail in a GOP vote split. A March 30 Mat-Su forum spotlighted contrasts on resource development, education, and veterans issues among seven participants, including the top four, but no breakout momentum emerged. Consolidation before June 1 filing deadline, endorsements, or fresh polls could create separation in this chaotic contest.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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