Iowa's Republican tilt and open Senate seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Joni Ernst, underpin trader consensus favoring Ashley Hinson at 57 percent. Hinson secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and endorsements from Ernst and President Trump, while maintaining a fundraising edge. Recent polling averages show a tight contest, with Hinson ahead by roughly 1-3 points in surveys through early August, including an Emerson poll placing her at 48 percent to Josh Turek's 45 percent. Turek's Democratic primary win and focus on economic issues have kept the race within reach in this toss-up environment, though structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities ahead of the November 2026 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para o Senado de Iowa
Vencedor da eleição para o Senado de Iowa
$180,830 Vol.
$180,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
57%
Josh Turek (D)
44%
$180,830 Vol.
$180,830 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Ashley Hinson (R)
$91,343 Vol.
57%
Josh Turek (D)
$89,487 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican tilt and open Senate seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Joni Ernst, underpin trader consensus favoring Ashley Hinson at 57 percent. Hinson secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and endorsements from Ernst and President Trump, while maintaining a fundraising edge. Recent polling averages show a tight contest, with Hinson ahead by roughly 1-3 points in surveys through early August, including an Emerson poll placing her at 48 percent to Josh Turek's 45 percent. Turek's Democratic primary win and focus on economic issues have kept the race within reach in this toss-up environment, though structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities ahead of the November 2026 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ET
Volume
$180,830Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Iowa's Republican tilt and open Senate seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Joni Ernst, underpin trader consensus favoring Ashley Hinson at 57 percent. Hinson secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and endorsements from Ernst and President Trump, while maintaining a fundraising edge. Recent polling averages show a tight contest, with Hinson ahead by roughly 1-3 points in surveys through early August, including an Emerson poll placing her at 48 percent to Josh Turek's 45 percent. Turek's Democratic primary win and focus on economic issues have kept the race within reach in this toss-up environment, though structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities ahead of the November 2026 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$180,830Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's Republican tilt and open Senate seat, vacated by retiring incumbent Joni Ernst, underpin trader consensus favoring Ashley Hinson at 57 percent. Hinson secured the GOP nomination with strong primary support and endorsements from Ernst and President Trump, while maintaining a fundraising edge. Recent polling averages show a tight contest, with Hinson ahead by roughly 1-3 points in surveys through early August, including an Emerson poll placing her at 48 percent to Josh Turek's 45 percent. Turek's Democratic primary win and focus on economic issues have kept the race within reach in this toss-up environment, though structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns continue to shape the implied probabilities ahead of the November 2026 election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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