Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, with recent polls like the University of Houston survey (April 28–May 1) showing Paxton at 48% to Cornyn's 45% among likely voters, fueling uncertainty in this bruising intraparty contest. Democratic nominee James Talarico, who won his March primary decisively over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans by 3–8 points in late April University of Texas and Texas Public Opinion Research polls, though high undecided shares (15–27%) reflect volatility amid Texas' diversifying urban electorate and suburban swing voters. Trader consensus tilts slightly Republican at 54.5% due to the state's GOP lean and Cornyn's incumbency advantage, but the race stays tight from primary fatigue and Talarico's appeal to independents. Runoff resolution, national midterm dynamics, fundraising disparities, or turnout shifts in battleground areas like Dallas-Fort Worth could create separation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para o Senado do Texas
Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Texas
$197,426 Vol.
$197,426 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
55%
Democrata
47%
$197,426 Vol.
$197,426 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republicano
$108,660 Vol.
55%
Democrata
$88,767 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, with recent polls like the University of Houston survey (April 28–May 1) showing Paxton at 48% to Cornyn's 45% among likely voters, fueling uncertainty in this bruising intraparty contest. Democratic nominee James Talarico, who won his March primary decisively over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans by 3–8 points in late April University of Texas and Texas Public Opinion Research polls, though high undecided shares (15–27%) reflect volatility amid Texas' diversifying urban electorate and suburban swing voters. Trader consensus tilts slightly Republican at 54.5% due to the state's GOP lean and Cornyn's incumbency advantage, but the race stays tight from primary fatigue and Talarico's appeal to independents. Runoff resolution, national midterm dynamics, fundraising disparities, or turnout shifts in battleground areas like Dallas-Fort Worth could create separation.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
Volume
$197,426Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, with recent polls like the University of Houston survey (April 28–May 1) showing Paxton at 48% to Cornyn's 45% among likely voters, fueling uncertainty in this bruising intraparty contest. Democratic nominee James Talarico, who won his March primary decisively over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans by 3–8 points in late April University of Texas and Texas Public Opinion Research polls, though high undecided shares (15–27%) reflect volatility amid Texas' diversifying urban electorate and suburban swing voters. Trader consensus tilts slightly Republican at 54.5% due to the state's GOP lean and Cornyn's incumbency advantage, but the race stays tight from primary fatigue and Talarico's appeal to independents. Runoff resolution, national midterm dynamics, fundraising disparities, or turnout shifts in battleground areas like Dallas-Fort Worth could create separation.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$197,426Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn faces Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff on May 26, with recent polls like the University of Houston survey (April 28–May 1) showing Paxton at 48% to Cornyn's 45% among likely voters, fueling uncertainty in this bruising intraparty contest. Democratic nominee James Talarico, who won his March primary decisively over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, leads both Republicans by 3–8 points in late April University of Texas and Texas Public Opinion Research polls, though high undecided shares (15–27%) reflect volatility amid Texas' diversifying urban electorate and suburban swing voters. Trader consensus tilts slightly Republican at 54.5% due to the state's GOP lean and Cornyn's incumbency advantage, but the race stays tight from primary fatigue and Talarico's appeal to independents. Runoff resolution, national midterm dynamics, fundraising disparities, or turnout shifts in battleground areas like Dallas-Fort Worth could create separation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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