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Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial da Colômbia

Market icon
Política·Eleições Globais

Eleição presidencial da Colômbia

Iván Cepeda Castro 45%

Paloma Valencia 39.1%

Abelardo de la Espriella 15%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$12,334,440 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 45%

Paloma Valencia 39.1%

Abelardo de la Espriella 15%

Sergio Fajardo (DC) <1%

Polymarket

$12,334,440 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$458,280 Vol.

45%

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Paloma Valencia

$563,777 Vol.

39%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$559,129 Vol.

15%

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Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,310,136 Vol.

1%

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Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$93,190 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López (IND)

$541,369 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$590,298 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,026,134 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$710,961 Vol.

<1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,209,083 Vol.

<1%

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Vicky Dávila (IND)

$444,280 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$380,154 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$1,118,092 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$499,016 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$1,793,441 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$411,597 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$313,043 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$288,026 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 presidential election, narrowly ahead of leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 44.5% and center-right Paloma Valencia at 39.1%, reflecting a fragmented race post-March 8 legislative elections where Historic Pact secured Senate plurality but no majority. Cepeda's steady polling lead around 35-42% stems from continuity with President Petro's coalition, bolstered by recent Guarumo and CNC surveys, while Valencia's surge from her primary landslide has consolidated center-right support, narrowing gaps. Right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 15% amid vote-splitting risks in the first round. Separation could arise from opposition endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in Petro administration approval amid economic pressures and peace negotiations before the likely June runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$12,334,440
Data de Término
21 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M at 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 presidential election, narrowly ahead of leftist Iván Cepeda Castro at 44.5% and center-right Paloma Valencia at 39.1%, reflecting a fragmented race post-March 8 legislative elections where Historic Pact secured Senate plurality but no majority. Cepeda's steady polling lead around 35-42% stems from continuity with President Petro's coalition, bolstered by recent Guarumo and CNC surveys, while Valencia's surge from her primary landslide has consolidated center-right support, narrowing gaps. Right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella slips to 15% amid vote-splitting risks in the first round. Separation could arise from opposition endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in Petro administration approval amid economic pressures and peace negotiations before the likely June runoff.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$12,334,440
Data de Término
21 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 45%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 45¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" has generated $12.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 45%, meaning the market assigns a 45% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial da Colômbia" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.