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Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil

Market icon
Mundo·Brasil

Eleição presidencial no Brasil

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.1%

Renan Santos 5.8%

Fernando Haddad 4.2%

Polymarket

$38,026,631 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 44%

Flávio Bolsonaro 39.1%

Renan Santos 5.8%

Fernando Haddad 4.2%

Polymarket

$38,026,631 Vol.

Market icon

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$4,301,460 Vol.

44%

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Flávio Bolsonaro

$3,794,055 Vol.

39%

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Renan Santos

$3,603,455 Vol.

6%

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Fernando Haddad

$2,968,748 Vol.

4%

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Ronaldo Caiado

$1,257,745 Vol.

3%

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Romeu Zema

$236,184 Vol.

1%

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Tarcisio de Freitas

$5,958,426 Vol.

1%

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Jair Bolsonaro

$2,479,144 Vol.

1%

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Geraldo Alckmin

$218,953 Vol.

<1%

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Michelle Bolsonaro

$2,867,280 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Bolsonaro

$5,068,833 Vol.

<1%

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Eduardo Leite

$534,047 Vol.

<1%

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Ratinho Júnior

$4,384,192 Vol.

<1%

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Camilo Santana

$354,474 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including the March 27-29 Nexus survey showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied at 43% each in first-round voting intention, underpin trader consensus pricing this as a razor-thin race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lula's incumbency advantage and consolidated left-wing support are offset by Flávio's surge as the leading right-wing consolidator, bolstered by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the ex-president's ineligibility. High voter frustration with the political class and economic pressures keep others fragmented below 6%, maintaining deadlock; separation could arise from party convention endorsements, fresh economic data, or scandals before runoffs.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$38,026,631
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls, including the March 27-29 Nexus survey showing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied at 43% each in first-round voting intention, underpin trader consensus pricing this as a razor-thin race ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Lula's incumbency advantage and consolidated left-wing support are offset by Flávio's surge as the leading right-wing consolidator, bolstered by his father Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement despite the ex-president's ineligibility. High voter frustration with the political class and economic pressures keep others fragmented below 6%, maintaining deadlock; separation could arise from party convention endorsements, fresh economic data, or scandals before runoffs.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$38,026,631
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Eleição presidencial no Brasil" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 14 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 44%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" has generated $38 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eleição presidencial no Brasil," browse the 14 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eleição presidencial no Brasil" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.