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Mundo·Eleições Globais

Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?

Market icon
Mundo·Eleições Globais

Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?

$236,481 Vol.

4 out 2026
Polymarket

$236,481 Vol.

Polymarket

Flavio Bolsonaro

$15,139 Vol.

82%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$101,925 Vol.

75%

Fernando Haddad

$33,152 Vol.

16%

Michelle Bolsonaro

$17,644 Vol.

4%

Tarcisio de Freitas

$59,335 Vol.

4%

Jair Bolsonaro

$9,285 Vol.

3%

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls from late March 2026, such as Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%), Gerp (Lula 38%, Flávio 36%), and AtlasIntel (Lula 46%, Flávio 40%), consistently place President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the top two in first-round voting intentions, with others below 4% amid 9-12% undecided voters. Flávio's surge over the past month, narrowing Lula's lead from wider gaps earlier in the year via the enduring Bolsonaro brand, drives trader consensus on their advancement to a likely October 25 runoff if no candidate secures a first-round majority on October 4. Party nominations this summer and regional shifts could further shape the closely contested path-to-victory.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$236,481
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent national polls from late March 2026, such as Paraná Pesquisas (Lula 41%, Flávio Bolsonaro 38%), Gerp (Lula 38%, Flávio 36%), and AtlasIntel (Lula 46%, Flávio 40%), consistently place President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as the top two in first-round voting intentions, with others below 4% amid 9-12% undecided voters. Flávio's surge over the past month, narrowing Lula's lead from wider gaps earlier in the year via the enduring Bolsonaro brand, drives trader consensus on their advancement to a likely October 25 runoff if no candidate secures a first-round majority on October 4. Party nominations this summer and regional shifts could further shape the closely contested path-to-victory.

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$236,481
Data de Término
4 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 82%, followed by "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 75%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 82¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?" has generated $236.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 82%, meaning the market assigns a 82% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 75%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.