Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party as the clear first-round frontrunners ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula holds 36–42% support while Flávio trails at 31–37%, with all other candidates—including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. No contender approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Simulated runoff surveys show the pair statistically tied, with margins inside polling error. An early-September institutional standoff at the Supreme Federal Court has added volatility but has not shifted first-round positioning. The market therefore centers on whether any late surge by minor candidates can displace one of the two leaders before ballots open.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
Quais candidatos avançarão para o segundo turno presidencial do Brasil?
$605,439 Vol.
3 out 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Renan Santos
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$605,439 Vol.
Flavio Bolsonaro
$101,397 Vol.
97%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$268,621 Vol.
96%
Renan Santos
$26,151 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$833 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$86,259 Vol.
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$37,715 Vol.
1%
Romeu Zema
$1,434 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$17,160 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,870 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party as the clear first-round frontrunners ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula holds 36–42% support while Flávio trails at 31–37%, with all other candidates—including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. No contender approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Simulated runoff surveys show the pair statistically tied, with margins inside polling error. An early-September institutional standoff at the Supreme Federal Court has added volatility but has not shifted first-round positioning. The market therefore centers on whether any late surge by minor candidates can displace one of the two leaders before ballots open.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado Aberto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ET
Volume
$605,439Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party as the clear first-round frontrunners ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula holds 36–42% support while Flávio trails at 31–37%, with all other candidates—including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. No contender approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Simulated runoff surveys show the pair statistically tied, with margins inside polling error. An early-September institutional standoff at the Supreme Federal Court has added volatility but has not shifted first-round positioning. The market therefore centers on whether any late surge by minor candidates can displace one of the two leaders before ballots open.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$605,439Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls position incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party as the clear first-round frontrunners ahead of the October 4 vote. Lula holds 36–42% support while Flávio trails at 31–37%, with all other candidates—including Augusto Cury, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits. No contender approaches the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff on October 25. Simulated runoff surveys show the pair statistically tied, with margins inside polling error. An early-September institutional standoff at the Supreme Federal Court has added volatility but has not shifted first-round positioning. The market therefore centers on whether any late surge by minor candidates can displace one of the two leaders before ballots open.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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