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Mundo·Eleições Globais

Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?

Market icon
Mundo·Eleições Globais

Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?

Iván Cepeda Castro 89%

Paloma Valencia 6.7%

Abelardo de la Espriella 2.3%

Juan Daniel Oviedo <1%

Polymarket

$1,884,032 Vol.

Iván Cepeda Castro 89%

Paloma Valencia 6.7%

Abelardo de la Espriella 2.3%

Juan Daniel Oviedo <1%

Polymarket

$1,884,032 Vol.

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Iván Cepeda Castro

$65,487 Vol.

89%

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Paloma Valencia

$212,986 Vol.

7%

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Abelardo de la Espriella

$473,693 Vol.

2%

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Juan Daniel Oviedo

$40,725 Vol.

<1%

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Sergio Fajardo

$68,150 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Manuel Galán

$85,658 Vol.

<1%

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Juan Carlos Pinzón

$40,980 Vol.

<1%

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David Luna Sánchez

$153,864 Vol.

<1%

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Gustavo Bolívar

$80,819 Vol.

<1%

Market icon

Vicky Dávila

$245,500 Vol.

<1%

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Luis Gilberto Murillo

$97,403 Vol.

<1%

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Claudia López

$58,410 Vol.

<1%

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Roy Barreras

$78,983 Vol.

<1%

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Mauricio Cárdenas

$27,441 Vol.

<1%

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Germán Vargas Lleras

$52,235 Vol.

<1%

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Daniel Quintero

$30,512 Vol.

<1%

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Enrique Peñalosa

$34,683 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's commanding lead in recent polls, averaging around 37% in first-round voting intentions from firms like Guarumo-Ecoanalítica, GAD3/Gran Encuesta, and CNC, has driven trader consensus to price him as the overwhelming favorite to top the May 31, 2026, primera vuelta. This momentum stems from the Pacto Histórico's plurality victory in the March 8 legislative elections and consultas interpartidistas, solidifying Cepeda as the left's standard-bearer with President Petro's endorsement. Right-wing challenger Paloma Valencia has surged to second at ~20% post her party's primary win, while Abelardo de la Espriella trails, but fragmented opposition vote keeps Cepeda ahead; late scandals or turnout shifts in swing regions could narrow gaps ahead of the ballot finalized March 25.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,884,032
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro's commanding lead in recent polls, averaging around 37% in first-round voting intentions from firms like Guarumo-Ecoanalítica, GAD3/Gran Encuesta, and CNC, has driven trader consensus to price him as the overwhelming favorite to top the May 31, 2026, primera vuelta. This momentum stems from the Pacto Histórico's plurality victory in the March 8 legislative elections and consultas interpartidistas, solidifying Cepeda as the left's standard-bearer with President Petro's endorsement. Right-wing challenger Paloma Valencia has surged to second at ~20% post her party's primary win, while Abelardo de la Espriella trails, but fragmented opposition vote keeps Cepeda ahead; late scandals or turnout shifts in swing regions could narrow gaps ahead of the ballot finalized March 25.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.

If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$1,884,032
Data de Término
31 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

" Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 18 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 89%, followed by "Paloma Valencia" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, " Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 23, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on " Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?," browse the 18 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for " Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?" is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Paloma Valencia" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for " Vencedor do 1º turno da eleição presidencial da Colômbia?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.