Trader consensus reflects 98.1% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain President past April 30, 2025, anchored by his January 20 inauguration and ongoing smooth transition, marked by cabinet nominations advancing toward Senate confirmation hearings. Absent any recent official statements on resignation, credible health concerns, impeachment momentum, or incapacity signals, traders align with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit office within the first 100 days. No developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, legal indictments derailing the presidency, or congressional probes—have emerged to challenge this positioning. Realistic scenarios for reversal include sudden health events, extraordinary resignation announcements, or rapid impeachment proceedings, though these face steep institutional barriers precluding near-term action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
NEW
$37,994 Vol.
NEW
$37,994 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Sim
NEW
$37,994 Vol.
NEW
$37,994 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 98.1% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain President past April 30, 2025, anchored by his January 20 inauguration and ongoing smooth transition, marked by cabinet nominations advancing toward Senate confirmation hearings. Absent any recent official statements on resignation, credible health concerns, impeachment momentum, or incapacity signals, traders align with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit office within the first 100 days. No developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, legal indictments derailing the presidency, or congressional probes—have emerged to challenge this positioning. Realistic scenarios for reversal include sudden health events, extraordinary resignation announcements, or rapid impeachment proceedings, though these face steep institutional barriers precluding near-term action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volume
$37,994Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects 98.1% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain President past April 30, 2025, anchored by his January 20 inauguration and ongoing smooth transition, marked by cabinet nominations advancing toward Senate confirmation hearings. Absent any recent official statements on resignation, credible health concerns, impeachment momentum, or incapacity signals, traders align with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit office within the first 100 days. No developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, legal indictments derailing the presidency, or congressional probes—have emerged to challenge this positioning. Realistic scenarios for reversal include sudden health events, extraordinary resignation announcements, or rapid impeachment proceedings, though these face steep institutional barriers precluding near-term action.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37,994Data de Término
Apr 30, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 98.1% implied probability that Donald Trump will remain President past April 30, 2025, anchored by his January 20 inauguration and ongoing smooth transition, marked by cabinet nominations advancing toward Senate confirmation hearings. Absent any recent official statements on resignation, credible health concerns, impeachment momentum, or incapacity signals, traders align with historical base rates where presidents rarely exit office within the first 100 days. No developments in the past 30 days—such as scandals, legal indictments derailing the presidency, or congressional probes—have emerged to challenge this positioning. Realistic scenarios for reversal include sudden health events, extraordinary resignation announcements, or rapid impeachment proceedings, though these face steep institutional barriers precluding near-term action.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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