Skip to main content
icon for LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primária Da Louisiana

LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana

icon for LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana
Política·Primária Da Louisiana

LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana

Blake Miguez 12%

Misti Cordell 4.0%

Rick Edmonds 2.0%

Austin Magee 1.9%

Polymarket

$42,460 Vol.

Blake Miguez 12%

Misti Cordell 4.0%

Rick Edmonds 2.0%

Austin Magee 1.9%

Polymarket

$42,460 Vol.

Blake Miguez

$21,522 Vol.

12%

Misti Cordell

$937 Vol.

4%

Rick Edmonds

$1,236 Vol.

2%

Austin Magee

$1,237 Vol.

2%

Samuel Wyatt

$5,912 Vol.

1%

Michael Echols

$10,524 Vol.

13%

Michael Mebruer

$1,092 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The open seat in Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Julia Letlow's Senate bid, has drawn seven Republican candidates into a closed primary now rescheduled for November 3 following a Supreme Court ruling that altered the district map. Trader consensus currently favors Michael Mebruer at 44 percent, ahead of state Rep. Michael Echols and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Recent candidate forums and an April poll showed the state legislators holding early name recognition advantages in the rural, R+18 district, while lesser-known entrants like Mebruer and Misti Cordell competed on issues such as immigration, rural healthcare, and federal spending. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these dynamics along with historical patterns of Louisiana Republican primaries favoring established legislators absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$42,460
Data de Término
16 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The open seat in Louisiana's 5th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Julia Letlow's Senate bid, has drawn seven Republican candidates into a closed primary now rescheduled for November 3 following a Supreme Court ruling that altered the district map. Trader consensus currently favors Michael Mebruer at 44 percent, ahead of state Rep. Michael Echols and state Sen. Blake Miguez. Recent candidate forums and an April poll showed the state legislators holding early name recognition advantages in the rural, R+18 district, while lesser-known entrants like Mebruer and Misti Cordell competed on issues such as immigration, rural healthcare, and federal spending. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing incorporates these dynamics along with historical patterns of Louisiana Republican primaries favoring established legislators absent major shifts.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$42,460
Data de Término
16 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 4:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the LA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Michael Mebruer" at 44%, followed by "Michael Echols" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" has generated $42.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" is "Michael Mebruer" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Echols" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "LA-05 Vencedor da primária republicana" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.