Recent opinion polls from late March, including 21 Research Centre and Medián, show Péter Magyar's opposition Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, up from narrower gaps earlier in the month, fueling trader consensus on a Tisza popular vote victory. This positions Tisza 9%+ margin at 38.5% and 6–9% at 24%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on Tisza's momentum amid economic discontent and low trust in elections. However, all-voters surveys display closer races or Fidesz edges, tempering bets toward Fidesz 0–3% at 11% given incumbency advantages, rural turnout, and historical polling misses ahead of the April 12 parliamentary vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTisza 9%+ 39%
Tisza 6-9% 24%
Tisza 3-6% 12%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 11%
$1,430,559 Vol.
$1,430,559 Vol.
12 abr 2026
Tisza 9%+
39%
Tisza 6-9%
24%
Tisza 3-6%
12%
Tisza 0-3%
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
11%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
3%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
4%
Outro
<1%
Tisza 9%+ 39%
Tisza 6-9% 24%
Tisza 3-6% 12%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% 11%
$1,430,559 Vol.
$1,430,559 Vol.
12 abr 2026
Tisza 9%+
$150,888 Vol.
39%
Tisza 6-9%
$35,420 Vol.
24%
Tisza 3-6%
$51,883 Vol.
12%
Tisza 0-3%
$42,223 Vol.
6%
Fidesz-KDNP 0-3%
$71,293 Vol.
11%
Fidesz-KDNP 3-6%
$63,333 Vol.
5%
Fidesz-KDNP 6-9%
$454,309 Vol.
3%
Fidesz-KDNP 9%+
$530,110 Vol.
4%
Outro
$31,101 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls from late March, including 21 Research Centre and Medián, show Péter Magyar's opposition Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, up from narrower gaps earlier in the month, fueling trader consensus on a Tisza popular vote victory. This positions Tisza 9%+ margin at 38.5% and 6–9% at 24%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on Tisza's momentum amid economic discontent and low trust in elections. However, all-voters surveys display closer races or Fidesz edges, tempering bets toward Fidesz 0–3% at 11% given incumbency advantages, rural turnout, and historical polling misses ahead of the April 12 parliamentary vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Volume
$1,430,559Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.Recent opinion polls from late March, including 21 Research Centre and Medián, show Péter Magyar's opposition Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, up from narrower gaps earlier in the month, fueling trader consensus on a Tisza popular vote victory. This positions Tisza 9%+ margin at 38.5% and 6–9% at 24%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on Tisza's momentum amid economic discontent and low trust in elections. However, all-voters surveys display closer races or Fidesz edges, tempering bets toward Fidesz 0–3% at 11% given incumbency advantages, rural turnout, and historical polling misses ahead of the April 12 parliamentary vote.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election.
For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered.
If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
Volume
$1,430,559Data de Término
12 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 5, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls from late March, including 21 Research Centre and Medián, show Péter Magyar's opposition Tisza party widening its lead over Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance to 19–23 points among decided and likely voters, up from narrower gaps earlier in the month, fueling trader consensus on a Tisza popular vote victory. This positions Tisza 9%+ margin at 38.5% and 6–9% at 24%, reflecting the wisdom of crowds on Tisza's momentum amid economic discontent and low trust in elections. However, all-voters surveys display closer races or Fidesz edges, tempering bets toward Fidesz 0–3% at 11% given incumbency advantages, rural turnout, and historical polling misses ahead of the April 12 parliamentary vote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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