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Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

Market icon
Política·Eleições Nos EUA

Candidato presidencial republicano 2028

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 19.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,171,421 Vol.

J.D. Vance 36.9%

Marco Rubio 19.6%

Tucker Carlson 4.7%

Ron DeSantis 2.6%

Polymarket

$519,171,421 Vol.

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J.D. Vance

$9,883,478 Vol.

37%

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Marco Rubio

$6,872,113 Vol.

20%

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Tucker Carlson

$7,482,034 Vol.

5%

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Ron DeSantis

$10,096,089 Vol.

3%

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Donald Trump

$6,580,265 Vol.

2%

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Donald Trump Jr.

$6,015,512 Vol.

2%

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Thomas Massie

$2,937,842 Vol.

2%

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Glenn Youngkin

$5,688,612 Vol.

2%

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Rand Paul

$16,467,816 Vol.

1%

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Vivek Ramaswamy

$12,997,207 Vol.

1%

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Ivanka Trump

$5,475,549 Vol.

1%

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Tulsi Gabbard

$10,829,466 Vol.

1%

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Elon Musk

$23,893,245 Vol.

1%

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Nikki Haley

$7,673,792 Vol.

1%

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Ted Cruz

$14,688,840 Vol.

1%

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Marjorie Taylor Greene

$4,124,248 Vol.

1%

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Greg Abbott

$17,631,155 Vol.

1%

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Brian Kemp

$13,318,513 Vol.

1%

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Eric Trump

$4,412,102 Vol.

1%

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Sarah Huckabee Sanders

$28,343,976 Vol.

1%

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Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$11,281,570 Vol.

1%

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Josh Hawley

$16,484,356 Vol.

1%

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Katie Britt

$24,847,540 Vol.

1%

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Tom Brady

$28,757,567 Vol.

1%

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Matt Gaetz

$15,562,266 Vol.

1%

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Pete Hegseth

$2,338,053 Vol.

1%

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Elise Stefanik

$22,234,010 Vol.

1%

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John Thune

$29,691,532 Vol.

1%

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Kristi Noem

$29,014,961 Vol.

1%

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Joe Kent

$2,574,245 Vol.

1%

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Steve Bannon

$15,711,600 Vol.

1%

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Kim Kardashian

$23,766,606 Vol.

1%

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Byron Donalds

$34,408,662 Vol.

1%

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Erika Kirk

$12,286,034 Vol.

1%

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Mike Pence

$34,839,358 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination due to his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, where the Make America Healthy Again initiative resonates with independents and health-focused voters disillusioned by traditional party platforms. His April 4 announcement of an aggressive midterm campaign schedule in swing states tests GOP embrace of his crossover appeal ahead of November contests, boosting market sentiment despite polling leads for J.D. Vance. Vance benefits from vice presidential incumbency and MAGA loyalty, while Marco Rubio climbs on reports of donor preferences over Vance in Trump soundings. Midterm results and Trump's lame-duck influence will clarify primary dynamics under term limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,171,421
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus positions Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination due to his high-visibility role as HHS Secretary, where the Make America Healthy Again initiative resonates with independents and health-focused voters disillusioned by traditional party platforms. His April 4 announcement of an aggressive midterm campaign schedule in swing states tests GOP embrace of his crossover appeal ahead of November contests, boosting market sentiment despite polling leads for J.D. Vance. Vance benefits from vice presidential incumbency and MAGA loyalty, while Marco Rubio climbs on reports of donor preferences over Vance in Trump soundings. Midterm results and Trump's lame-duck influence will clarify primary dynamics under term limits.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$519,171,421
Data de Término
7 nov 2028
Mercado Aberto
Jul 11, 2025, 3:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 35 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, followed by "Marco Rubio" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" has generated $519.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 11, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028," browse the 35 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" is "J.D. Vance" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Marco Rubio" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Candidato presidencial republicano 2028" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.