Recent polling averages, including a GQR survey showing Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn 47%-42% among likely voters, have propelled trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. After neither topped 50% in the March 3 first-round primary—where Cornyn edged Paxton amid heavy spending by the incumbent—Paxton has gained from conservative endorsements like CPAC's and anti-establishment momentum portraying him as a Trump-aligned challenger. Cornyn retains institutional backing and fundraising edges, but low-turnout runoffs historically amplify base enthusiasm, sustaining uncertainty; a Trump endorsement could further consolidate support for either.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoPaxton 9%+ 32.1%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
Paxton 6–9% 12%
$42,117 Vol.
$42,117 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
32%
Paxton 6–9%
12%
Paxton 3–6%
12%
Paxton <3%
12%
Cornyn <3%
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
3%
Cornyn 9%+
13%
Paxton 9%+ 32.1%
Cornyn <3% 12.7%
Cornyn 9%+ 13%
Paxton 6–9% 12%
$42,117 Vol.
$42,117 Vol.
25 mai 2026
Paxton 9%+
$7,847 Vol.
32%
Paxton 6–9%
$4,877 Vol.
12%
Paxton 3–6%
$3,839 Vol.
12%
Paxton <3%
$5,829 Vol.
12%
Cornyn <3%
$3,512 Vol.
13%
Cornyn 3–6%
$4,042 Vol.
7%
Cornyn 6–9%
$4,566 Vol.
3%
Cornyn 9%+
$7,604 Vol.
13%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages, including a GQR survey showing Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn 47%-42% among likely voters, have propelled trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. After neither topped 50% in the March 3 first-round primary—where Cornyn edged Paxton amid heavy spending by the incumbent—Paxton has gained from conservative endorsements like CPAC's and anti-establishment momentum portraying him as a Trump-aligned challenger. Cornyn retains institutional backing and fundraising edges, but low-turnout runoffs historically amplify base enthusiasm, sustaining uncertainty; a Trump endorsement could further consolidate support for either.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$42,117Data de Término
25 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages, including a GQR survey showing Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn 47%-42% among likely voters, have propelled trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. After neither topped 50% in the March 3 first-round primary—where Cornyn edged Paxton amid heavy spending by the incumbent—Paxton has gained from conservative endorsements like CPAC's and anti-establishment momentum portraying him as a Trump-aligned challenger. Cornyn retains institutional backing and fundraising edges, but low-turnout runoffs historically amplify base enthusiasm, sustaining uncertainty; a Trump endorsement could further consolidate support for either.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$42,117Data de Término
25 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages, including a GQR survey showing Attorney General Ken Paxton ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn 47%-42% among likely voters, have propelled trader consensus toward Paxton securing a 9%+ margin of victory in the May 26 Republican primary runoff. After neither topped 50% in the March 3 first-round primary—where Cornyn edged Paxton amid heavy spending by the incumbent—Paxton has gained from conservative endorsements like CPAC's and anti-establishment momentum portraying him as a Trump-aligned challenger. Cornyn retains institutional backing and fundraising edges, but low-turnout runoffs historically amplify base enthusiasm, sustaining uncertainty; a Trump endorsement could further consolidate support for either.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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