Byron Donalds holds a commanding position in the August 18, 2026, Florida Republican primary for governor, with traders assigning 98% implied probability due to President Trump's early and explicit endorsement, consistent polling averages near 47% among likely GOP voters, and a fundraising advantage exceeding $10 million against fragmented opponents. The primary's proximity limits opportunities for challengers such as Jay Collins or James Fishback to close the gap through additional endorsements, debate performances, or shifts in voter turnout. Historical patterns of Trump-backed candidates prevailing in Florida Republican contests further reinforce current market pricing, though late developments including health issues, major scandals, or unexpected primary-day mobilization could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoByron Donalds maintains commanding lead in Florida Republican primary ahead of August vote
Byron Donalds rises to 98%1%
As the August 18 primary approached, Donalds held a near-majority in polls and prediction markets, supported by Trump's endorsement and strong fundraising, making him the clear favorite to win the nomination.
Jimmy Patronis ends gubernatorial bid, wins special congressional primary
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis won the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District, effectively ending his campaign for governor and endorsing Byron Donalds, consolidating support behind Donalds.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 97%3%
U.S. Representative Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, calling him a proven conservative fighter. This endorsement from a prominent Republican further consolidated support for Donalds ahead of the primary.
Byron Donalds reaches peak market support ahead of Florida GOP primary
Byron Donalds rises to 99%2%
Byron Donalds' market price peaked at 99% on August 10, 2026, reflecting overwhelming market confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor. This peak came shortly before the August 18 primary election date.
Byron Donalds maintains commanding lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary polls
Byron Donalds rises to 98%1%
Polls released in August 2026 showed Byron Donalds holding a strong lead among Republican voters in the gubernatorial primary, reinforcing his frontrunner status and contributing to market confidence in his nomination. This solidified Donalds' position as the likely nominee.
Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, ending gubernatorial speculation
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Wilton Simpson officially filed for reelection as Agriculture Commissioner, signaling he would not run for governor and causing his market price to drop to zero, removing him from the gubernatorial race.
Byron Donalds leads GOP primary as favorite to replace DeSantis
Byron Donalds rises to 98%1%
Polling and reporting in early August 2026 confirmed Byron Donalds as the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination to replace term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis. Donalds' strong fundraising, endorsements, and polling lead positioned him as the likely nominee, reflected in the market's near-certain pricing.
Wilton Simpson endorses Byron Donalds for governor, uniting Florida Cabinet support
Byron Donalds rises to 98%2%
Wilton Simpson endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, giving Donalds the backing of the entire Florida Cabinet and consolidating establishment support behind him, which likely contributed to Donalds' market price reaching 98%.
James Fishback discusses campaign policies and controversies in media appearance
James Fishback emphasized his campaign focus on eliminating property taxes and banning data centers in Florida, downplaying controversies surrounding his language and statements. His media appearances aimed to solidify his platform and appeal to voters despite negative press.
Poll shows Byron Donalds commanding lead in Florida Republican gubernatorial primary
Byron Donalds rises to 97%3%
A Quantus Insights poll in late July 2026 showed Byron Donalds commanding nearly 50% support among likely Republican primary voters, leading across demographic groups and solidifying his frontrunner status. This poll confirmed market confidence in Donalds' nomination prospects.
Poll shows Byron Donalds holding commanding lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 94%6%
A Quantus Insights poll found Donalds commanding nearly 50% support among likely Republican primary voters, more than triple that of his closest competitor, reinforcing his dominant position.
Wilton Simpson launches first re-election ad for Agriculture Commissioner race
Wilton Simpson released his first re-election campaign ad, emphasizing his accomplishments in farmland preservation and wildfire mitigation, reinforcing his commitment to the Agriculture Commissioner race and confirming he would not run for governor, reflected in his zero market price for governor.
Judge rules James Fishback will stay on GOP gubernatorial ballot after residency challenge
A judge ruled in favor of James Fishback, allowing him to remain on the Republican primary ballot despite a legal challenge from Jay Collins questioning his Florida residency. This ruling confirmed Fishback's candidacy and maintained his presence in the race.
Judge rules James Fishback can remain on Florida governor ballot after residency challenge
A judge rejected Lt. Gov. Jay Collins’ legal challenge to Fishback’s residency qualifications, allowing Fishback to remain on the Republican primary ballot, though his polling remained low.
Jay Collins files lawsuit challenging James Fishback's residency eligibility
James Fishback drops to 2%8%
Jay Collins filed a lawsuit arguing that James Fishback does not meet Florida's seven-year residency requirement for governor, citing Fishback's past voter registration and homestead exemption in Washington, D.C. This legal challenge created uncertainty around Fishback's candidacy and affected his market support.
Byron Donalds challenges Democrat David Jolly to three debates in Florida governor race
Byron Donalds rises to 95%1%
Donalds publicly challenged Democratic candidate David Jolly to three debates, signaling his confidence and focus on the general election, which helped solidify his frontrunner position in the Republican primary.
Florida GOP declines to hold debate, Donalds refuses to debate rivals
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
The Republican Party of Florida announced it would not hold a gubernatorial primary debate, citing Donalds as the only candidate meeting polling and fundraising thresholds. Donalds also stated he would not debate other candidates, drawing criticism from rivals and Casey DeSantis. This move solidified Donalds' frontrunner status and limited exposure for other candidates.
Republican Party of Florida announces no gubernatorial debate due to Donalds' sole qualification
Byron Donalds jumps to 94%6%
The Republican Party of Florida announced it would not hold a gubernatorial debate because Byron Donalds was the only candidate to meet their polling and fundraising qualifications. This further solidified Donalds' frontrunner status and drew criticism from other candidates and Governor DeSantis, who emphasized the importance of an open primary process.
University of North Florida poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds rises to 97%1%
A University of North Florida poll found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, reinforcing his frontrunner status and contributing to his market price rising to near certainty.
Byron Donalds receives endorsement from Senator Rick Scott
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
Senator Rick Scott endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, adding to Donalds' growing list of key endorsements and solidifying his frontrunner status in the Republican primary, which positively influenced his market position.
Wilton Simpson endorses Byron Donalds for governor, uniting Florida Cabinet support
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, joining other statewide elected officials in backing Donalds. This endorsement gave Donalds the support of the entire Florida Cabinet, significantly boosting his campaign and market position.
James Fishback names Sean Lozano as running mate for lieutenant governor
James Fishback announced Sean Lozano, a former police officer, as his running mate for lieutenant governor, aiming to strengthen his outsider campaign and appeal to law-and-order voters. This move increased his campaign's profile but did not significantly alter his market position.
Matt Gaetz appointed to Triumph Gulf Coast board, signaling political shift
Matt Gaetz plunges to 0%41%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz was appointed to the board of Triumph Gulf Coast, a state economic development organization, marking his return to public service but diminishing his viability as a gubernatorial candidate, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Matt Gaetz appointed to Florida Triumph Gulf Coast board, signaling exit from governor race
Matt Gaetz dips to 0%1%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz was appointed to the board of Triumph Gulf Coast, a Florida nonprofit, marking his return to public service and effectively ending his campaign for governor, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, praising him as a conservative fighter and adding to Donalds' growing list of key endorsements, further consolidating support ahead of the primary.
Byron Donalds says he is winning Florida Governor race without DeSantis endorsement
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
Byron Donalds stated in an interview that despite not having an endorsement from Governor Ron DeSantis, he is winning the Republican primary, highlighting his confidence and campaign momentum.
Jimmy Patronis wins special congressional primary, ends gubernatorial bid
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis won the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District in a special primary, effectively ending his campaign for governor and shifting his political focus, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Congressman Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 96%2%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, praising him as a conservative fighter and adding to Donalds' growing list of endorsements, further consolidating support within the Republican primary.
Congressman Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, praising him as a conservative fighter and adding to Donalds' growing list of key endorsements. This endorsement further consolidated Donalds' frontrunner status and was reflected in his market price reaching 94%.
Governor Ron DeSantis criticizes Florida GOP for canceling primary debates
Byron Donalds rises to 90%2%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly criticized the Florida Republican Party for canceling the primary debates, accusing the party of trying to engineer the outcome in favor of Byron Donalds. This highlighted intra-party tensions and underscored Donalds' dominant position in the race.
Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, ending gubernatorial speculation
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Wilton Simpson officially filed for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, signaling he would not run for governor and causing his market price to drop to zero, removing him from the gubernatorial race.
Florida GOP cancels gubernatorial debate citing candidate qualifications
The Florida Republican Party canceled the GOP gubernatorial debate after only Byron Donalds met the party's polling qualification threshold, signaling party consolidation behind Donalds and negatively impacting other candidates' market prices.
Florida GOP rescinds invitation to James Fishback for party summit over rule violation and extremism concerns
James Fishback drops to 5%5%
The Republican Party of Florida rescinded its invitation to James Fishback for the Sunshine State Showdown summit due to his participation in an unsanctioned debate and concerns over his associations with extremist figures. This event further marginalized Fishback's campaign and contributed to his market price decline.
Florida GOP cancels gubernatorial debate after only Byron Donalds qualifies
Byron Donalds jumps to 91%12%
The Florida Republican Party canceled the official gubernatorial debate after only Byron Donalds met the party's polling and fundraising qualification criteria. This move signaled party consolidation behind Donalds and drew criticism from other candidates and Governor Ron DeSantis, who accused the party of engineering the outcome.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP primary by 46 points
Byron Donalds rises to 94%2%
A poll from the Associated Industries of Florida showed Byron Donalds with 54% support in the Republican primary, leading his nearest competitor by 46 points. This reinforced Donalds' dominant position and market confidence in his nomination as the Republican candidate for governor.
Congressman Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for governor
Byron Donalds plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis, who had been a candidate, endorsed Byron Donalds, consolidating support behind Donalds and signaling Patronis' exit from the gubernatorial race, reflected in Patronis' market price dropping to zero.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, reinforcing Donalds' position as the leading Republican candidate and contributing to the market price surge for Donalds.
Byron Donalds qualifies as sole candidate meeting GOP debate criteria
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Byron Donalds was the only Republican gubernatorial candidate to meet the strict 10/10/10 debate qualification criteria set by the Florida GOP, underscoring his dominant position in the race. This discouraged other candidates from gaining traction and solidified Donalds' frontrunner status.
Ron DeSantis endorses Wilton Simpson for Florida Agriculture Commissioner re-election
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Governor Ron DeSantis endorsed Wilton Simpson for re-election as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, signaling Simpson's decision to seek another term rather than run for governor, impacting his gubernatorial prospects.
Governor Ron DeSantis endorses Wilton Simpson for second term as Agriculture Commissioner
Wilton Simpson dips to 0%1%
Governor Ron DeSantis endorsed Wilton Simpson for re-election as Agriculture Commissioner, solidifying Simpson's decision to remain in that race and not pursue the governorship, which contributed to his drop to near zero in the governor's primary market.
Wilton Simpson endorses Byron Donalds for governor, uniting Florida Cabinet support
Byron Donalds surges to 83%41%
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, giving Donalds the backing of the entire Florida Cabinet and consolidating establishment Republican support behind the frontrunner. This endorsement further diminished Simpson's own gubernatorial prospects and strengthened Donalds' position.
Wilton Simpson declares 2026 ‘The Year of the Farmer’ with historic ag funding in state budget
Wilton Simpson plunges to 1%41%
Wilton Simpson, Florida Agriculture Commissioner, announced major agricultural funding victories in the 2026-2027 state budget, reinforcing his focus on agriculture and signaling his decision to seek re-election as Agriculture Commissioner rather than run for governor, leading to a decline in his gubernatorial market price.
Poll shows Trump-backed Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP primary by 46 points
Byron Donalds rises to 94%3%
A poll by the Associated Industries of Florida showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 54% support, far ahead of James Fishback and Jay Collins, reflecting his dominant position bolstered by Trump's endorsement and strong fundraising.
Associated Industries of Florida poll shows Byron Donalds dominating GOP primary
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
AIF released a poll showing Donalds with a substantial lead in the Republican primary, supported by his large war chest and Trump’s endorsement, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence.
Poll confirms Byron Donalds' commanding lead in Florida GOP primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 94%6%
A poll by the Associated Industries of Florida showed Byron Donalds with 54% support among likely GOP voters, leading his nearest competitor by 46 points. This poll reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status ahead of the August primary.
Poll shows Byron Donalds holding commanding lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
A poll by the Associated Industries of Florida’s Center for Political Strategy showed Byron Donalds with 54% support among likely Republican voters, underscoring his dominant position and contributing to his market price surge.
Wilton Simpson declares 2026 ‘Year of the Farmer’ with historic ag funding
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Florida Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson announced major agricultural funding victories in the 2026 state budget, highlighting his leadership in the sector. Despite his active role, Simpson's gubernatorial market price declined to zero, indicating limited electoral prospects.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 94%6%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, praising him as a conservative fighter and consolidating support behind Donalds in the Republican primary. Patronis' endorsement signaled his exit from the gubernatorial race and boosted Donalds' market position.
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
Jimmy Patronis, who shifted focus from governor race to congressional seat, publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, consolidating Republican support behind Donalds and boosting his frontrunner status.
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis, who shifted focus from the gubernatorial race to a congressional seat, publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, consolidating support within the Republican Party and further boosting Donalds' frontrunner status.
Byron Donalds reports $65.8 million cash on hand as of June 1, 2026
Byron Donalds rises to 92%1%
Campaign finance reports showed Donalds with a massive cash reserve, underscoring his strong campaign infrastructure and solidifying his frontrunner status in the Republican primary.
Congressman Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for governor
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for Florida governor, consolidating support within the Republican Party and further boosting Donalds' frontrunner status.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds, praising him as a conservative fighter and consolidating support behind Donalds, reflected in Patronis' market price dropping to zero.
Jimmy Patronis endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 91%4%
U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis publicly endorsed Byron Donalds for governor, calling him a proven conservative fighter, which helped solidify Donalds' position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
James Fishback marries Valeria Quimby-Moro amid campaign controversies
James Fishback held a surprise wedding in a Catholic church, a personal event that drew media attention amid his ongoing controversial gubernatorial campaign, but did not significantly improve his political standing.
James Fishback announces surprise wedding amid heated governor race
James Fishback dips to 7%3%
James Fishback surprised voters by announcing his marriage in a Catholic ceremony, adding drama to his controversial campaign. Despite the attention, this event did not significantly improve his standing in the race, and his market price continued to decline.
Byron Donalds remains GOP favorite as rivals refuse to clear field
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Despite challenges from rivals like Jay Collins and James Fishback, Byron Donalds maintained his position as the GOP frontrunner, supported by Trump's endorsement and record fundraising, keeping his market price high.
Jay Collins denies rumors of campaign exit, intensifies attacks on Byron Donalds
Jay Collins drops to 3%9%
Facing trailing poll numbers, Jay Collins denied rumors of dropping out of the race and launched a significant media campaign attacking frontrunner Byron Donalds, attempting to position himself as a viable alternative. Despite this, Donalds maintained a commanding lead in polls and fundraising.
Jay Collins remains in Florida governor race despite Trump-backed Donalds' lead
Jay Collins dips to 3%2%
Despite Byron Donalds' strong lead and Trump's endorsement, Jay Collins refused to drop out of the race, maintaining his candidacy but failing to significantly close the gap in market support.
Donalds remains GOP favorite as rivals refuse to clear field
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Despite Donalds' strong position and fundraising advantage, rivals like Lt. Gov. Jay Collins continue their campaigns, but Donalds maintains his frontrunner status amid ongoing polling and campaign developments.
Criminal investigation opened into Hope Florida program linked to Casey DeSantis
Casey DeSantis plunges to 2%39%
A criminal investigation was opened by the State Attorney into the Hope Florida program, spearheaded by First Lady Casey DeSantis, following scrutiny over the handling of a $10 million Medicaid settlement. The controversy cast a shadow over Casey DeSantis' political prospects and affected market perceptions of her candidacy.
Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 88%3%
Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement from a respected law enforcement figure bolstered Donalds' appeal among conservative voters and reinforced his frontrunner status.
Florida House Republican Randy Maggard endorses Byron Donalds for governor
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Endorsement from a key Florida House Republican leader added to Donalds' growing coalition of influential supporters, reinforcing his frontrunner status and market dominance.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis addresses rumors about Casey DeSantis running for governor
Casey DeSantis dips to 0%1%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed and downplayed speculation about his wife, Casey DeSantis, running for governor in 2026. This clarification contributed to the decline in market support for Casey DeSantis, whose price dropped to zero by June 2026.
Governor Ron DeSantis addresses rumors about Casey DeSantis running for governor
Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed speculation about his wife Casey DeSantis running for governor, denying her interest in running and suggesting she has no enthusiasm for entering the political arena. This likely contributed to her market price dropping to zero.
Governor Ron DeSantis denies Casey DeSantis plans to run for governor
Casey DeSantis drops to 0%7%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly stated that his wife, Casey DeSantis, has no enthusiasm or plans to run for governor in 2026. This statement likely caused her market price to drop to zero as speculation about her candidacy ended.
Governor Ron DeSantis dismisses rumors of Casey DeSantis running for governor
Casey DeSantis dips to 0%2%
Governor Ron DeSantis publicly addressed and dismissed rumors that his wife, Casey DeSantis, would run for governor in 2026, stating she has no interest in running. This clarification likely contributed to the decline in market support for Casey DeSantis as a candidate.
Byron Donalds raises record $22 million in first quarter of 2026 for Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 88%6%
Byron Donalds reported raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, a record for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida, solidifying his dominant position in the Republican primary and reinforcing market confidence in his nomination.
Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Agriculture Commissioner, ending gubernatorial speculation
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Wilton Simpson, previously considered a potential gubernatorial candidate, officially filed for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, signaling he would not run for governor and causing his market price to drop to zero.
Jimmy Patronis wins Republican nomination in special election to replace Matt Gaetz
Jimmy Patronis dips to 0%1%
Jimmy Patronis secured the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District in a special primary, shifting his political focus from the gubernatorial race and effectively ending his campaign for governor, reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Jimmy Patronis wins special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District, ending gubernatorial bid
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis won the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District in a special primary, effectively ending his campaign for governor and shifting his political focus. This was reflected in his market price dropping to zero.
Poll shows Byron Donalds crushing GOP field in Florida governor race
Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%
A Fabrizio Lee & Associates poll showed Byron Donalds with a massive 54% of the vote among likely Republican primary voters, a 45-point lead over his nearest competitor. This poll confirmed Donalds' dominant position and contributed to his market price surge.
Jay Collins’ market price slides to 5% after missing debate invitation
Collins was not invited to the televised GOP debate, signaling limited party support and pushing his price down to single digits.
Wilton Simpson files for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner
Wilton Simpson plunges to 0%42%
Wilton Simpson officially filed for reelection as Florida Agriculture Commissioner, ending speculation about a gubernatorial run and causing his market price to drop to zero, removing him from the governor's race.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%
An April 2026 poll showed Byron Donalds leading against potential Democratic opponents, reinforcing his frontrunner status and likely contributing to sustained high market support.
Poll: Byron Donalds leads potential Democrat challengers for Florida governor
An Echelon Insights survey showed Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers in the general election, reinforcing his strong position and appeal to voters. This positive polling likely supported his market price near the peak.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading potential Democratic challengers for Florida Governor
Byron Donalds rises to 87%1%
A survey by Echelon Insights showed Donalds leading Democrat challengers David Jolly and Jerry Demings, reinforcing his strong position ahead of the primary and general election.
Poll shows Byron Donalds holding early lead in Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 88%6%
An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained high market prices for his win.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary with 46% support
Byron Donalds rises to 88%2%
An Emerson College poll found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support among likely voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to market confidence in his nomination.
Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary
Polling and fundraising data showed Byron Donalds maintaining a clear lead in the Republican primary with 120 days to go before the election. Analysts noted that his messaging and organizing efforts in the coming months would be crucial to sustaining this advantage.
Wilton Simpson Launches Re-Election Campaign for Agriculture Commissioner
Florida Agricultural Commissioner Wilton Simpson officially announced he would seek re-election to his current post, ending speculation of a gubernatorial run.
Byron Donalds maintains clear lead in Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
Polls and political analysis in April 2026 showed Byron Donalds holding a clear lead in the Republican primary for Florida governor, with strong fundraising and endorsements contributing to his dominance. This sustained polling advantage supported his market price near peak levels.
Poll shows Byron Donalds holds early lead in Florida GOP governor primary
An Emerson College poll showed Donalds leading with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, confirming his frontrunner status and contributing to sustained market confidence in his nomination.
Jay Collins criticizes frontrunner Byron Donalds in Florida governor race
Jay Collins drops to 4%8%
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins publicly criticized frontrunner Byron Donalds, questioning his decision-making and moral clarity, attempting to position himself as a viable alternative in the Republican primary. Despite the attacks, Donalds maintained a strong lead in polls and fundraising.
Florida Farm Bureau endorses Byron Donalds for Governor
Byron Donalds rises to 89%1%
The Florida Farm Bureau, a major agricultural advocacy group, endorsed Byron Donalds, bolstering his support among rural and agricultural communities and enhancing his campaign's credibility and reach.
James Fishback’s poll numbers dip below 10% after fundraising reports
James Fishback dips to 9%3%
Fishback disclosed a modest $500,000 fundraising total, causing his market price to fall from 12% to 9% as donors shifted to Donalds.
James Fishback confronted over grooming allegations amid heated Florida governor race
James Fishback dips to 9%2%
James Fishback faced renewed scrutiny and public confrontation over allegations of a past relationship with a minor, which dominated media coverage and likely contributed to his declining support in the primary race.
Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor
Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' broad coalition and reinforced his image as the law-and-order candidate.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 89%10%
Multiple polls in early 2026 consistently showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, supported by strong fundraising and Trump's endorsement, reinforcing his frontrunner status and increasing market prices.
Byron Donalds emerges as lone qualifier for Republican governor debate
Byron Donalds jumps to 90%7%
Byron Donalds was the only Republican candidate to meet all qualification criteria for the GOP primary debate, underscoring his dominant position and discouraging other candidates from gaining traction.
Byron Donalds raises record $22.4 million in first quarter for Florida governor race
Byron Donalds jumps to 91%8%
Byron Donalds reported raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals, solidifying his frontrunner status and increasing market confidence.
Polls show Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 91%7%
Multiple polls, including Emerson College Polling, showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, often doubling the support of his nearest rivals, confirming his frontrunner status and influencing market prices accordingly.
Byron Donalds dominates Florida GOP gubernatorial race
Byron Donalds rises to 87%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign dominance was highlighted by his fundraising, endorsements, and polling leads, making him the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary. His opponents struggled to gain traction amid his strong position.
Wilton Simpson Launches Re-Election Campaign for Agriculture Commissioner
Wilton Simpson officially launched his re-election bid for Agriculture Commissioner, ending any lingering speculation of a run for governor.
Americans for Prosperity Action endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Byron Donalds, pledging to mobilize grassroots support for his campaign. This endorsement from a major conservative advocacy group further solidified Donalds' position as the Republican frontrunner in the gubernatorial primary.
Byron Donalds reports record fundraising haul for Florida governor race
Byron Donalds rises to 91%3%
Byron Donalds raised $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals, reinforcing his frontrunner status and financial advantage in the Republican primary.
Byron Donalds reports record $22 million fundraising quarter
Byron Donalds rises to 91%2%
Byron Donalds announced raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals. This fundraising success underscored his frontrunner status and financial advantage in the race.
Byron Donalds raises $22.4 million in first quarter for governor race
Byron Donalds rises to 89%1%
Byron Donalds reported raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals, demonstrating his strong fundraising advantage and reinforcing his frontrunner status.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP gubernatorial primary with 46% support
Byron Donalds rises to 88%2%
A poll by Emerson College found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position in the race.
Byron Donalds reports raising $22.4 million in first quarter of 2026
Byron Donalds jumps to 90%6%
Donalds' record fundraising haul reinforced his frontrunner status, providing significant campaign resources and boosting market confidence in his nomination chances.
Byron Donalds emerges as lone qualifier for Florida GOP governor debate
Byron Donalds jumps to 91%8%
Byron Donalds was the only Republican candidate to meet the party's criteria for the gubernatorial debate, highlighting his dominant position in the race and leading to criticism from other candidates and Governor DeSantis. This solidified Donalds' frontrunner status in the market.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signs law allowing state to designate organizations as domestic terrorists
Governor Ron DeSantis signed HB 1471, a law allowing Florida to designate organizations as domestic terrorists, reinforcing his tough stance on security and law enforcement. While not directly related to the gubernatorial primary, this law reflects the political environment and policy priorities influencing the Republican base during the campaign.
Florida Governor signs law allowing state to designate organizations as domestic terrorists
Governor Ron DeSantis signed HB 1471 into law, empowering Florida to designate national organizations as domestic terrorists and restricting their influence in state institutions. This legislative action underscored the state's conservative policy direction under DeSantis' administration during the election year, reinforcing the political environment for the Republican primary.
44 candidates in 2026 Florida gubernatorial race
The race expanded to 44 candidates, reflecting a highly fragmented field with multiple contenders vying for the Republican nomination.
Florida gubernatorial race reaches 44 active candidates including key Republicans
The large field of candidates, including key Republicans like Jay Collins and James Fishback, was noted, but Donalds maintained a strong lead, reflected in the market's price distribution.
James Fishback faces party sanctions after defying GOP debate rules
James Fishback drops to 10%6%
James Fishback defied Republican Party of Florida rules by participating in an unsanctioned debate, leading to his removal from official party events and damaging his campaign, reflected in his declining market support.
Poll shows Casey DeSantis in single digits in GOP governor race hypothetical
Casey DeSantis plunges to 1%40%
Polling indicated that Casey DeSantis, despite speculation about a gubernatorial run, was polling in single digits among Republican voters, signaling limited enthusiasm and diminishing her prospects in the primary.
James Fishback confronted publicly over alleged grooming of a minor
Fishback faced viral public confrontation and debate over longstanding allegations of a relationship with a minor, intensifying scrutiny and controversy around his campaign.
James Fishback confronted over alleged grooming of a minor
James Fishback dips to 9%1%
Allegations resurfaced accusing James Fishback of a romantic relationship with a 17-year-old participant in his nonprofit debate organization, leading to public confrontations and media scrutiny. This controversy negatively impacted his campaign and market support.
Byron Donalds reports record $22.2 million fundraising haul
Byron Donalds jumps to 91%7%
Byron Donalds announced raising a record-breaking $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing his rivals. This fundraising success reinforced his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price reaching a peak.
Byron Donalds hits peak market support amid Florida GOP primary race
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%
Byron Donalds reached a peak market price of 93%, reflecting strong confidence in his likelihood to win the Republican primary for Florida governor as other candidates' support waned.
Byron Donalds' campaign gains momentum with increased media coverage and endorsements
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%11%
Byron Donalds' campaign received increased media attention and endorsements from key Republican figures, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Florida Republican gubernatorial primary. This led to a peak in his market probability around early April 2026.
Emerson Poll Shows Byron Donalds Leading GOP Primary by 42 Points
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
A new Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds with a massive lead at 46% support, while rivals Jay Collins and James Fishback trailed at just 4% each.
Byron Donalds raises record $22.2 million in first quarter for governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 89%6%
Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, demonstrating strong financial support and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the GOP primary.
Byron Donalds’ campaign announces record $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026
Byron Donalds jumps to 90%8%
Donalds’ campaign reported raising $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, further solidifying his financial advantage and front-runner position in the Republican primary, which was reflected in a price increase in the market.
Emerson College poll confirms Byron Donalds as clear GOP frontrunner
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
A poll by Emerson College showed Byron Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, well ahead of other candidates, confirming his dominant position in the race.
Byron Donalds peaks at 93% after winning key endorsement from Florida Senate President
Byron Donalds jumps to 93%5%
The Florida Senate President publicly endorsed Donalds, creating a brief market peak to 93% before a modest pullback, while all other candidates fell to near‑zero.
Byron Donalds raises $22.2 million in Q1 2026 for governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 90%7%
Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026, further demonstrating his strong campaign infrastructure and solidifying his dominant position in the race.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP Governor race by wide margin
Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%
An Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary for Florida Governor with 46% support, far ahead of his closest rivals, confirming his dominant position in the race.
Byron Donalds’ campaign raises record $22.2 million in first quarter
Byron Donalds jumps to 90%6%
Byron Donalds announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $22.2 million in Q1 2026, significantly boosting his campaign resources. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and enabled expanded voter outreach and advertising efforts ahead of the primary.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds with 46% support in GOP primary
Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%
Polling by Emerson College showed Byron Donalds with a commanding 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, far ahead of other candidates, solidifying his position as the clear favorite for the nomination.
Byron Donalds announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 76%28%
Byron Donalds officially announced his candidacy for Florida governor and quickly received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, propelling him to frontrunner status and causing a sharp rise in market support.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading GOP primary with 46% support
Byron Donalds rises to 87%4%
A poll from Emerson College found Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position in the race.
Byron Donalds raises record $22.2 million in first quarter for Florida Governor race
Byron Donalds jumps to 84%5%
Byron Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul in the first quarter of 2026, significantly outpacing all other Republican candidates and reinforcing his frontrunner status in the primary race.
Jimmy Patronis wins Republican nomination in special election, ends gubernatorial bid
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis won the Republican nomination for Florida's 1st Congressional District in a special primary, shifting his political focus from the gubernatorial race and effectively ending his campaign for governor. This caused his market price for governor to drop to zero.
Byron Donalds Posts Record $22 Million Q1 Fundraising Haul
Byron Donalds jumps to 92%9%
Byron Donalds shattered fundraising records by raising over $22 million in the first quarter of 2026, cementing his status as the financial juggernaut of the race.
Gov. Ron DeSantis calls special session to redraw Florida congressional districts
Governor DeSantis called a special legislative session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts, intensifying GOP infighting and political maneuvering in Florida. While this affected the broader political landscape, it had limited direct impact on the gubernatorial primary market.
Byron Donalds raises $22.4 million in first quarter, dominating fundraising
Byron Donalds rises to 88%4%
Byron Donalds reported a record-breaking $22.4 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026, far surpassing all other Republican gubernatorial candidates combined, reinforcing his frontrunner status and market price increase.
Byron Donalds reports record $22 million fundraising quarter
Byron Donalds rises to 85%3%
Byron Donalds announced raising a record $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, the largest single-quarter haul in Florida history for a non-incumbent gubernatorial candidate, solidifying his frontrunner status.
Byron Donalds reports record-breaking $22.2 million fundraising haul in Q1 2026
Byron Donalds rises to 92%4%
Byron Donalds announced raising $22.2 million in the first quarter of 2026, the largest single-quarter haul in Florida history for a non-incumbent gubernatorial candidate, significantly outpacing rivals and reinforcing his frontrunner status and market price increase.
Byron Donalds posts record $22 million fundraising quarter
Byron Donalds rises to 83%4%
Byron Donalds reported raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, more than four times the combined total of his major rivals, solidifying his frontrunner status and increasing market confidence.
Emerson College poll confirms Byron Donalds as GOP frontrunner with 46% support
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
The Emerson College poll conducted in late March 2026 confirmed Byron Donalds as the clear Republican frontrunner with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates, reinforcing his dominant position in the primary race.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor race
Byron Donalds rises to 84%4%
A poll from Emerson College showed Byron Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, far ahead of other candidates. This poll confirmed Donalds' dominant position and boosted market confidence in his likelihood to win.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 89%7%
A poll by Emerson College showed Byron Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, well ahead of other candidates. This reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and contributed to sustained high market support.
Emerson Poll Shows Byron Donalds Dominating GOP Primary Field
Byron Donalds jumps to 92%9%
An Emerson College poll conducted in late March showed Byron Donalds holding a massive lead with 46% support, while rivals Collins and Fishback sat at just 4%.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP primary with 44% support
Byron Donalds surges to 76%28%
A poll from Emerson College confirmed Byron Donalds as the clear frontrunner in the Republican primary, leading with 44% support even in a hypothetical ballot including Casey DeSantis. This reinforced market confidence in Donalds' nomination chances.
Emerson College Poll Confirms Byron Donalds as Clear Favorite
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
An Emerson College poll showed Byron Donalds holding a massive lead with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, while his rivals remained in single digits.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins, Florida's Lieutenant Governor and a key ally of Governor DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced a significant challenger, causing some market volatility and a temporary increase in his market price.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a key ally of Gov. Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against Trump-backed Byron Donalds. Collins' entry initially caused some market interest but did not significantly challenge Donalds' lead, as reflected by his price declining to 3% by May 2026.
Byron Donalds hits 87% price after DeSantis hints at endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Governor Ron DeSantis said he would consider endorsing a candidate but did not name anyone; market inferred likely support for Donalds, sending his price to 87% and further marginalizing others.
Byron Donalds receives endorsement from President Donald Trump for Florida governor race
Byron Donalds surges to 77%29%
Byron Donalds announced his candidacy for Florida governor and quickly received President Donald Trump's endorsement, significantly boosting his campaign's visibility and fundraising. This endorsement was a key factor in Donalds' rise to frontrunner status in the Republican primary.
Waffle House bans James Fishback from Florida locations
James Fishback dips to 7%4%
James Fishback announced that Waffle House revoked permission for his campaign to visit their Florida locations, citing a ban. This unusual campaign setback received media coverage and likely contributed to a decline in his market price.
James Fishback banned from all Florida Waffle House locations
James Fishback drops to 9%8%
James Fishback claimed he was banned and criminally trespassed from all Waffle House locations in Florida, disrupting his campaign strategy to visit every location. This negative publicity likely contributed to his declining market support.
James Fishback banned from Waffle House locations in Florida
James Fishback dips to 9%1%
James Fishback announced he was banned from all Waffle House locations in Florida, disrupting his campaign plan to visit every location to meet voters. This incident added to the controversies surrounding his campaign and may have impacted his support.
James Fishback claims banned from Waffle House during campaign tour
James Fishback drops to 11%6%
James Fishback publicly stated he was banned from all Waffle House locations in Florida, a campaign setback that attracted media attention and may have impacted his public image and support in the primary race.
James Fishback claims Waffle House banned him during campaign tour
James Fishback drops to 10%6%
James Fishback announced that Waffle House revoked permission for his campaign to visit their Florida locations, citing a ban. This unusual campaign setback received media coverage and likely contributed to a decline in his market support.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds
Jay Collins plunges to 11%31%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor, entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead, reflected in modest market price changes.
Polls show Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 89%9%
Multiple polls in early 2026 consistently showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, supported by strong fundraising and Trump's endorsement. This solidified his frontrunner status and was reflected in market price increases.
Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%
Donalds shattered Florida fundraising records by raising $45 million in 2025, significantly outpacing previous candidates and solidifying his frontrunner status. This unprecedented fundraising haul increased market confidence in his nomination prospects.
James Fishback gains attention with Gen-Z Republican voters despite low overall support
James Fishback plunges to 16%27%
Fishback's campaign focused on younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, but remained a long shot overall, limiting his impact on the broader primary race.
Byron Donalds officially announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 77%29%
Byron Donalds announced his candidacy for Florida governor and quickly received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, propelling him to frontrunner status and causing a sharp rise in market support. Trump's endorsement was a critical factor solidifying Donalds' dominant position in the Republican primary.
James Fishback gains attention among young Republican voters in Florida
James Fishback dips to 15%3%
James Fishback's campaign made inroads with younger Republican voters, polling at 32% among ages 18-32, though overall support remained low, causing a temporary market interest in his candidacy.
Byron Donalds officially announces Florida governor candidacy with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds jumps to 79%12%
Byron Donalds formally announced his candidacy for Florida governor on Fox News, highlighting his background and commitment to continuing Florida's success. The announcement followed President Trump's endorsement, which had already boosted Donalds' campaign momentum and fundraising.
Byron Donalds announces candidacy for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative, announced his run for Florida governor and quickly received endorsement from former President Donald Trump. This endorsement and his fundraising prowess propelled him to frontrunner status, reflected in a sharp rise in market support.
Byron Donalds maintains strong lead in Florida GOP gubernatorial primary market
Byron Donalds rises to 81%2%
Byron Donalds' market price remained high following his early announcement and Trump's endorsement, solidifying his position as the frontrunner in the Republican primary.
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial bid continues to solidify
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Byron Donalds' campaign maintained its momentum as the primary frontrunner, with his market price rising steadily throughout the period.
Rep. Byron Donalds announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 82%34%
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally, announced his candidacy for Florida governor and received immediate backing from former President Donald Trump. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' standing in the Republican primary market, reflected in a sharp price increase from 48% to over 80% in the following weeks.
Poll shows Trump endorsement boosts Byron Donalds' support
Byron Donalds jumps to 79%12%
A University of North Florida poll revealed that informing GOP voters of Donald Trump's endorsement of Byron Donalds increased his support from 28% to 47%, while Casey DeSantis' support dropped. The poll underscored the significant impact of Trump's backing on Donalds' frontrunner status.
UNF Poll Shows Byron Donalds Leading GOP Primary Field
Byron Donalds rises to 81%1%
A poll from the University of North Florida showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary field, with his support surging further when voters were informed of Donald Trump's endorsement.
Byron Donalds officially announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds, a staunch Trump ally and U.S. Representative, announced his candidacy for Florida governor, immediately receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted Donalds' perceived chances in the Republican primary, reflected in a sharp price increase in the prediction market.
Byron Donalds leads Florida governor race fundraising with record haul
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%8%
Byron Donalds raised $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, a record for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida, solidifying his dominant position in the Republican primary. This fundraising success reinforced market confidence in his likelihood to win the nomination.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 80%5%
A poll conducted by the University of North Florida showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 44% support, far ahead of other candidates. This poll reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.
Byron Donalds confirms run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 76%28%
Byron Donalds officially announced his candidacy for Florida governor, highlighting his endorsement from President Donald Trump and positioning himself as the leading conservative candidate. This solidified Donalds' frontrunner status and influenced market confidence in his nomination.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 84%5%
A University of North Florida poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 28% support, ahead of Casey DeSantis and James Fishback. The poll also showed Donalds' support rising to 47% after being informed of Trump's endorsement, solidifying his frontrunner status.
Polls show Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP gubernatorial primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%8%
Multiple polls in early 2026 consistently showed Byron Donalds with a commanding lead in the Republican primary, supported by strong fundraising and Trump's endorsement. This reinforced his frontrunner status and contributed to the market price increase for Donalds and decline for other candidates.
National Governors Association meeting disrupted by Trump excluding Democrats
The annual governors' meeting in Washington was upended after President Trump excluded Democratic governors from White House events, highlighting partisan tensions that may influence Republican primaries including Florida's.
James Fishback Faces Eligibility Questions Over D.C. Homestead Claim
James Fishback dips to 11%4%
A newly revealed property tax bill showed James Fishback claimed a homestead deduction in Washington, D.C., raising doubts about his Florida residency eligibility.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by wide margin
Byron Donalds jumps to 84%5%
A University of North Florida poll showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 28% support, ahead of Casey DeSantis and James Fishback, reinforcing Donalds' frontrunner status and the impact of Trump's endorsement.
Byron Donalds reaches 81% market price after fundraising surge
Byron Donalds rises to 81%3%
Donald’s campaign reported a $15 million fundraising haul, reinforcing his frontrunner status and pushing his market price to a new high.
James Fishback alleges arson attack at his home
James Fishback drops to 11%6%
Authorities responded to a fire at James Fishback’s home, which he alleged was an arson attack intended as political intimidation. This incident brought media attention but also increased scrutiny and controversy around Fishback's campaign, contributing to a decline in his market support.
James Fishback alleges arson attack at his Madison County home
James Fishback dips to 14%3%
James Fishback's campaign faced a setback when authorities responded to a fire at his home, which he alleged was an act of political intimidation. This incident contributed to volatility and negative media attention around his campaign, impacting his market support negatively.
Arson attack at James Fishback's home raises political tensions
Authorities responded to a fire at James Fishback's home, believed to be arson. Fishback condemned the incident as political intimidation, which briefly softened media coverage and increased his visibility, though it did not significantly improve his polling or market position.
Speculation about Casey DeSantis running for governor intensifies but she denies plans
Casey DeSantis plunges to 1%40%
Amid speculation fueled by polls showing some support for Casey DeSantis, Florida's First Lady publicly denied any intention to run for governor in 2026. This clarification tempered market expectations and contributed to her declining support in the primary race.
James Fishback Alleges Arson Attack at His Madison Home
James Fishback rises to 16%4%
GOP candidate James Fishback claimed that an intentional fire was set in his yard, though local law enforcement did not open a criminal investigation.
Arson attack allegedly targets James Fishback's home
James Fishback drops to 10%6%
James Fishback's campaign reported an alleged arson attack on his home, which he publicly condemned and used to rally support. The incident highlighted the contentious nature of the race and may have contributed to volatility and decline in Fishback's market price.
James Fishback launches controversial Florida governor campaign
James Fishback plunges to 13%30%
James Fishback officially launched his campaign for governor, drawing attention for inflammatory rhetoric and controversies including allegations of misconduct, which negatively impacted his polling and market support.
James Fishback officially launches Florida governor campaign amid controversy
James Fishback plunges to 13%30%
James Fishback, a political newcomer, launched his campaign with a hard-right platform but quickly became embroiled in controversies including allegations of inappropriate relationships and provocative rhetoric. These issues, along with limited fundraising, caused his support and market price to decline sharply.
Florida Bar drops disciplinary investigation into Matt Gaetz
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
The Florida Bar decided not to pursue disciplinary action against Matt Gaetz despite a congressional report alleging serious misconduct. This development diminished Gaetz's political viability and contributed to his market price collapse.
Florida Bar drops disciplinary investigation against Matt Gaetz
Matt Gaetz plunges to 0%41%
The Florida Bar abandoned its disciplinary investigation into Matt Gaetz despite a congressional report alleging serious misconduct. This development diminished Gaetz's political viability and contributed to his market price falling to zero.
James Fishback publicly splits with DeSantis advisor Christina Pushaw
Fishback distanced himself from a key DeSantis advisor, signaling internal campaign challenges and possibly contributing to his declining support in the primary race.
Polk County Sheriff Grady Judd endorses Byron Donalds for Governor
Byron Donalds rises to 86%4%
Sheriff Grady Judd endorsed Byron Donalds, praising his law-and-order stance and support for tough-on-crime policies. This endorsement added to Donalds' growing support among Republican voters and reinforced his frontrunner position.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor against Trump-backed Donalds
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins entered the Republican primary, challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins' entry introduced competition but did not significantly dent Donalds' lead in the market.
Jay Collins announces candidacy for Florida Governor
Jay Collins plunges to 13%29%
Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his bid for governor, entering the Republican primary and adding a military leadership profile to the race. Collins was appointed lieutenant governor by DeSantis but lacked the governor's endorsement.
Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP governor primary in early polls
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
Polls showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with significant margins, boosted by President Trump's endorsement, which increased his support substantially compared to other candidates like Jay Collins and James Fishback.
Byron Donalds campaign labels Jay Collins an anti-Trump RINO
Byron Donalds rises to 85%3%
Following Jay Collins' entry into the race, Byron Donalds' campaign quickly responded by branding Collins as an anti-Trump RINO, aiming to consolidate Trump-aligned Republican voters and maintain Donalds' frontrunner status.
Jay Collins formally announces gubernatorial campaign, emphasizing military leadership
Jay Collins drops to 4%8%
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins publicly launched his campaign for governor, highlighting his military background and conservative credentials. Despite this, polls and fundraising showed him trailing behind frontrunner Byron Donalds, who maintained strong support with Trump's endorsement.
Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins Enters Gubernatorial Race
Jay Collins jumps to 8%5%
Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins formally announced his candidacy for governor, setting up a primary clash against Trump-backed Byron Donalds.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary and challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. This announcement increased his visibility and market support temporarily.
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary as a DeSantis ally, which introduced a notable contender and impacted market perceptions of the race.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins joins 2026 governor Republican primary against Trump-backed candidate
Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary against frontrunner Byron Donalds, who had President Trump's endorsement. Collins emphasized his military leadership and conservative record, temporarily boosting his market support.
Jay Collins officially launches campaign for Florida governor
Jay Collins surges to 42%30%
Jay Collins formally announced his gubernatorial campaign, emphasizing his military leadership and alignment with DeSantis policies. His campaign fundraising and visibility increased, but he remained behind frontrunner Donalds in polls and market prices.
Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins Enters Florida Gubernatorial Race
Jay Collins rises to 6%2%
Florida Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins officially announced his candidacy for governor, setting up a high-stakes primary challenge against Trump-backed Byron Donalds.
Mason-Dixon poll confirms Byron Donalds leads Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%
Mason-Dixon polling showed Donalds with 37% support among Republican voters, maintaining his lead and reinforcing his frontrunner position in the primary race.
Tucker Carlson Endorses James Fishback on Podcast
James Fishback rises to 12%4%
James Fishback appeared on Tucker Carlson's podcast, where Carlson endorsed his long-shot gubernatorial campaign, providing a brief boost to his visibility.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP primary for governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 79%12%
A Mason-Dixon poll of registered Republicans showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 37% support, well ahead of other candidates including Jay Collins and James Fishback, reinforcing his frontrunner status and boosting market confidence.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor by Ron DeSantis, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary and challenging frontrunner Byron Donalds. Collins emphasized his military background and leadership experience, but lacked the high-profile endorsements and fundraising of Donalds, limiting his market support.
Matt Gaetz says he is 'starting to think about' running for Florida governor
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was considering a run for Florida governor in 2026, despite previous denials and ongoing controversies, signaling potential entry into the crowded Republican primary.
Matt Gaetz hints at potential run for Florida governor amid ethics investigation
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly indicated he was considering a gubernatorial run despite ongoing ethics investigations and controversies, initially raising his profile in the race before his resignation from Congress and subsequent political shifts reduced his viability.
Matt Gaetz hints at considering Florida governor run
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026, sparking speculation about his potential candidacy. This announcement caused some market interest but did not translate into significant support.
Matt Gaetz Announces He Is Considering Run for Florida Governor
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz announced he was starting to think about running for governor, though his odds remained flat as he did not officially file.
Matt Gaetz publicly considers run for Florida governor
After resigning from Congress and withdrawing from the Attorney General nomination, Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026. Despite this, his market support remained low due to ongoing controversies and investigations.
Matt Gaetz considers run for Florida governor
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was starting to think about running for Florida governor in 2026, which briefly raised his profile in the race despite his ongoing controversies and eventual decision not to run.
Matt Gaetz hints at Florida governor run after Congress exit
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
Former Congressman Matt Gaetz publicly stated he was "starting to think about" running for Florida governor in 2026, raising his profile as a potential candidate despite ongoing controversies and investigations. This announcement initially raised his market price but failed to sustain momentum.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins surges to 79%37%
Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor in August 2025, announced his candidacy for governor, entering the Republican primary as a DeSantis ally. His military background and leadership experience positioned him as a notable contender, though he remained behind frontrunner Byron Donalds in polling.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary by double digits
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll showed Donalds leading with 39% support in a four-way race, significantly ahead of other candidates, boosted by awareness of Trump's endorsement.
Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025
Byron Donalds rises to 84%2%
Byron Donalds raised a record-breaking $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous fundraising records and solidifying his position as the GOP frontrunner in Florida.
Matt Gaetz denies plans to run for Florida governor despite speculation
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
Despite widespread speculation and political chatter about a potential gubernatorial run, Matt Gaetz publicly denied any plans to run for Florida governor. This denial coincided with a decline in his market price to near zero, reflecting diminished expectations of his candidacy.
Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%
Donalds' campaign reported raising $45 million over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial campaigns. This financial strength solidified his frontrunner status and contributed to his market price increase.
Florida GOP hosts candidate forum; Donalds dominates headlines
Byron Donalds rises to 82%1%
During a televised GOP forum, Donalds outperformed rivals in a Q&A session, leading to a price jump from 81% to 82% as market participants interpreted his strong showing as a sign of inevitable nomination.
Allegations surface against James Fishback regarding relationship with minor
James Fishback plunges to 25%18%
Serious allegations emerged against Republican candidate James Fishback concerning a past relationship with a minor, leading to negative media coverage and public scrutiny. This controversy contributed to a significant decline in Fishback's market support.
James Fishback makes controversial racial remarks against Byron Donalds
James Fishback drops to 16%9%
Fishback made racially charged attacks against Byron Donalds, including calling him a 'slave,' which alienated voters and party members, contributing to a steep drop in his market price.
Byron Donalds receives endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action
Byron Donalds jumps to 79%8%
Byron Donalds gained a significant endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action, which pledged grassroots support and voter mobilization, strengthening his campaign infrastructure and reinforcing his frontrunner status in the Republican primary.
House Ethics Committee report accuses Matt Gaetz of misconduct
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
The House Ethics Committee released a report accusing Matt Gaetz of paying women for sexual favors and drug use, including allegations involving a minor. Despite the controversy, Gaetz denied wrongdoing and later resigned from Congress, impacting his viability as a gubernatorial candidate and causing his market price to drop.
House Ethics Committee releases report accusing Matt Gaetz of misconduct
Matt Gaetz plunges to 1%40%
The House Ethics Committee released a report accusing Matt Gaetz of paying women for sexual favors, including a minor, which led to his withdrawal from the Attorney General nomination and resignation from Congress. This scandal severely damaged Gaetz's gubernatorial prospects, reflected in his market price collapse.
Florida Bar confirms disciplinary investigation of Matt Gaetz
Following a House Ethics Committee report, the Florida Bar confirmed an ongoing disciplinary investigation into former Representative Matt Gaetz, impacting his political prospects and contributing to his decline in the gubernatorial market.
Trump publicly praises Byron Donalds as preferred Florida governor candidate
Byron Donalds jumps to 81%11%
President Trump reiterated his support for Donalds in a televised interview, prompting a further price rise for Donalds to the low 80s and a corresponding decline for other candidates.
Governor Ron DeSantis declines to endorse any primary candidate
DeSantis' neutrality removed a potential boost for other contenders, reinforcing Donalds' lead and contributing to the continued decline of the remaining candidates toward zero.
Byron Donalds raises record $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%14%
Donalds' campaign announced a record-breaking fundraising haul of $45 million in 2025, the largest in Florida gubernatorial history at this point. This financial strength reinforced his frontrunner status and caused his market price to rise sharply.
Byron Donalds sets Florida fundraising record with $45 million raised in 2025
Byron Donalds surges to 82%19%
Donalds raised an unprecedented $45 million in 2025 for his gubernatorial campaign, surpassing previous records and solidifying his frontrunner status. This fundraising success significantly boosted market confidence in his chances.
Byron Donalds raises $45 million in 2025 for Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%11%
Byron Donalds' campaign announced raising $45 million over 2025, setting a fundraising record for Florida gubernatorial candidates at this stage. This financial strength increased his market support and solidified his frontrunner status.
Faith leaders unite behind Byron Donalds' Florida governor bid
Byron Donalds formed a Faith Leaders Coalition comprising 65 clergy and faith-based leaders to support his gubernatorial campaign. This coalition organized weekly prayer calls and mobilized grassroots support, strengthening Donalds' campaign infrastructure and voter outreach efforts.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Collins' entry added a high‑profile state official to the field, briefly lifting his price from single digits to low‑teens before his support waned as Donalds' endorsement dominated the narrative.
Poll shows Byron Donalds leading Republican primary field
Byron Donalds jumps to 70%10%
A statewide poll released in mid‑December gave Donalds a double‑digit lead over his rivals, reinforcing his upward price trajectory to the low 70s.
Azoria CEO James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 36%7%
James Fishback entered the race, positioning himself as a business outsider; the announcement shifted attention away from other fringe candidates, contributing to a modest dip in his own price and a slight rise for Donalds.
Byron Donalds gains momentum as frontrunner in Florida GOP governor race
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
Byron Donalds' campaign gained significant traction with increasing fundraising and endorsements, including from Donald Trump, leading to a sharp rise in his market support and polling numbers, establishing him as the leading candidate in the Republican primary.
James Fishback launches gubernatorial campaign
James Fishback drops to 33%10%
Entrepreneur James Fishback entered the race, drawing limited media attention; his market price fell from 43% to the low 30s as donors and voters focused on higher‑profile candidates.
Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45M in Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%
Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records, amassing $45 million over 2025 with $13.1 million in Q4, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Trump-endorsed Donalds raises $45 million in Florida governor campaign
Byron Donalds jumps to 82%9%
Donalds surpassed all previous gubernatorial fundraising records with $45 million raised over 2025, including $13.1 million in Q4 from over 8,000 donors, solidifying his position as the frontrunner.
Jay Collins' gubernatorial bid gains attention as lieutenant governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Following his announcement, Jay Collins' candidacy gained traction but faced challenges competing against Trump-backed Donalds, reflected in fluctuating market prices in early December 2025.
Byron Donalds raises record $22.4 million in Q1 2026 fundraising
Byron Donalds jumps to 87%5%
Byron Donalds reported a record fundraising haul for a non-incumbent candidate in Florida, raising $22.4 million in the first quarter of 2026. This financial advantage reinforced his dominant position in the Republican primary and boosted market confidence in his nomination chances.
Emerson College poll shows Byron Donalds leading Florida GOP governor primary
Byron Donalds surges to 69%21%
A poll from Emerson College showed Byron Donalds leading the Republican primary with 46% support, far ahead of other candidates. This polling data reinforced Donalds' frontrunner status and likely contributed to his market price increase.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces gubernatorial run
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins entered the 2026 Florida Republican gubernatorial primary, positioning himself against Trump‑backed Byron Donalds. The announcement triggered a steep drop in Collins' market price as voters reassessed his viability.
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 Florida governor race
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Jay Collins announced his candidacy, positioning himself as a DeSantis ally but without a clear endorsement, which coincided with a sharp drop in his market price from 42% to the low single digits over the following weeks.
Donald Trump endorses Rep. Byron Donalds for Florida governor
Byron Donalds jumps to 62%14%
Former President Trump publicly backed Byron Donalds, giving the candidate a major boost in national visibility and signaling party establishment support, which drove Donalds' price from the low‑40s to the high‑60s percent range.
James Fishback faces allegations of relationship with minor
James Fishback drops to 16%11%
James Fishback was publicly confronted with allegations regarding a relationship that began when his partner was a minor, causing controversy and negative media attention that likely contributed to his decline in market support.
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor
Jay Collins plunges to 3%39%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announced his candidacy for governor, entering the primary race against Trump-backed Byron Donalds, which initially caused a shift in market expectations.
James Fishback's campaign faces early market decline
James Fishback plunges to 10%33%
Fishback's campaign struggled early, with his price dropping from 43% to 10% by mid-2026, indicating limited traction in the competitive field.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 gubernatorial run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Jay Collins surges to 88%46%
Collins' official announcement launched his campaign, positioning him as a serious contender with strong military credentials and a potential path to challenge term-limited Gov. DeSantis. This major news event drove his price surge from 42% to 88% over the following months.
Poll shows Casey DeSantis favored by Republican voters for governor
A Florida Atlantic University poll showed First Lady Casey DeSantis as the preferred choice among Republican voters for governor in a hypothetical primary, indicating early interest in her candidacy despite no official announcement.
Byron Donalds emerges as early frontrunner with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 66%18%
Byron Donalds, U.S. Representative from Florida, gained early momentum in the Republican primary after receiving President Donald Trump's endorsement. This endorsement significantly boosted his polling and fundraising, leading to a rapid increase in market support from 48% to over 80% in the following months.
Byron Donalds announces campaign for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
Byron Donalds launched his campaign for Florida governor with the significant endorsement of former President Donald Trump, boosting his profile and early polling numbers, which led to a sharp increase in market support for his nomination.
Byron Donalds announces run for Florida governor with Trump endorsement
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
Byron Donalds announced his candidacy for Florida governor and quickly received endorsement from former President Donald Trump, propelling him to frontrunner status and causing a sharp rise in market support.
Jay Collins appointed Florida Lieutenant Governor
Jay Collins was appointed as Florida's Lieutenant Governor in August 2025, raising his profile ahead of his gubernatorial campaign announcement in early 2026. This appointment initially increased his market support.
James Fishback announces 2026 Florida governor bid with controversial remarks
James Fishback officially launched his campaign for Florida governor, immediately stirring controversy with racially charged comments about frontrunner Byron Donalds. This announcement introduced Fishback as a long-shot candidate and caused initial market interest in his candidacy.
Byron Donalds emerges as Trump-endorsed frontrunner for Florida governor
Byron Donalds surges to 67%19%
U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds secured the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, positioning him as the leading candidate in the Republican primary. This endorsement significantly boosted his campaign visibility and fundraising, reflected in rising market prices.
James Fishback announces GOP bid for Florida governor challenging Trump-backed Byron Donalds
James Fishback, an investment banker and political newcomer, announced his candidacy for the 2026 Republican primary, positioning himself as a conservative alternative to frontrunner Byron Donalds, who had President Trump's endorsement. This announcement introduced a new challenger and briefly increased Fishback's market visibility.
Jimmy Patronis resigns as Florida CFO to run for Congress, ending gubernatorial campaign
Jimmy Patronis plunges to 0%42%
Jimmy Patronis resigned as Florida Chief Financial Officer to run in a special election for Florida's 1st Congressional District, effectively ending his campaign for governor and causing his market price to drop to zero.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces run for governor in 2026 Republican primary
Jay Collins, appointed lieutenant governor by Ron DeSantis, officially entered the Republican primary, positioning himself against frontrunner Byron Donalds, who had Trump's endorsement. Collins' military background and legislative record were highlighted, but DeSantis withheld endorsement, leaving the race open.
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins announces 2026 governor run against Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds surges to 63%15%
Jay Collins, Florida's lieutenant governor and a DeSantis ally, officially entered the Republican primary, setting up a contest against Trump-endorsed Byron Donalds. This announcement clarified the primary field and influenced early market positioning, with Donalds gaining from Trump's backing and Collins entering as a credible contender.
James Fishback launches campaign for Florida governor amid controversy
James Fishback plunges to 13%30%
James Fishback officially launched his campaign for Florida governor, positioning himself as a hard-right candidate with a focus on immigration and affordability. His campaign quickly became controversial due to inflammatory remarks and allegations from a former partner, which negatively impacted his polling and fundraising.
Byron Donalds' gubernatorial campaign gains momentum
Byron Donalds' campaign for Florida governor, backed by Donald Trump, began the analysis window with strong market support, reflecting his status as the frontrunner.
Jay Collins announces run for Florida governor, challenging Trump-backed Byron Donalds
Jay Collins plunges to 12%30%
Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins officially entered the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, positioning himself against U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds, who had President Trump's endorsement. Collins emphasized his military leadership and conservative record, but Donalds remained the frontrunner with Trump's backing, setting the stage for a competitive primary.
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