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Eleições·Trump

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12

Market icon
Eleições·Trump

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12

Micah Lasher 47%

Alex Bores 34%

Jack Schlossberg 18%

Erik Bottcher 6.9%

Polymarket

$104,534 Vol.

Micah Lasher 47%

Alex Bores 34%

Jack Schlossberg 18%

Erik Bottcher 6.9%

Polymarket

$104,534 Vol.

Micah Lasher

$4,519 Vol.

47%

Alex Bores

$2,869 Vol.

31%

Jack Schlossberg

$5,255 Vol.

18%

Erik Bottcher

$1,823 Vol.

7%

George Conway

$1,409 Vol.

3%

Liz Krueger

$36,794 Vol.

1%

Julie Menin

$22,807 Vol.

1%

Cameron Kasky

$2,298 Vol.

1%

Lina Khan

$1,801 Vol.

1%

Andrew Cuomo

$1,559 Vol.

<1%

Gale Brewer

$1,244 Vol.

<1%

Brad Hoylman-Sigal

$4,664 Vol.

<1%

Keith Powers

$2,473 Vol.

<1%

Carolyn Maloney

$1,789 Vol.

<1%

Chelsea Clinton

$6,916 Vol.

<1%

Scott Stringer

$1,964 Vol.

<1%

Cynthia Nixon

$1,641 Vol.

<1%

Brad Lander

$1,255 Vol.

<1%

Liam Elkind

$1,454 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement, the NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 remains tightly contested among state Assembly members Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and influencer Jack Schlossberg, with trader consensus favoring Lasher at the top due to high-profile endorsements from Nadler and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose super PAC pledged up to $5 million in mid-March support. Early March polls showed a clustered field—Schlossberg leading a Conway-commissioned survey at 25%, followed by close results around 11-20% for Bores and Lasher—but Lasher's fundraising edge and establishment backing have since boosted his implied probability amid reports of heavy outside spending, including AI industry PACs targeting Bores. Upcoming candidate forums and further polls could shift the balance in this Manhattan battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,534
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Rep. Jerry Nadler's retirement announcement, the NY-12 Democratic primary on June 23 remains tightly contested among state Assembly members Micah Lasher, Alex Bores, and influencer Jack Schlossberg, with trader consensus favoring Lasher at the top due to high-profile endorsements from Nadler and former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose super PAC pledged up to $5 million in mid-March support. Early March polls showed a clustered field—Schlossberg leading a Conway-commissioned survey at 25%, followed by close results around 11-20% for Bores and Lasher—but Lasher's fundraising edge and establishment backing have since boosted his implied probability amid reports of heavy outside spending, including AI industry PACs targeting Bores. Upcoming candidate forums and further polls could shift the balance in this Manhattan battleground.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$104,534
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 21, 2025, 10:47 AM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Micah Lasher" at 47%, followed by "Alex Bores" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 47¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" has generated $104.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 21, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" is "Micah Lasher" at 47%, meaning the market assigns a 47% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alex Bores" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-12" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.