Deb Haaland leads Polymarket trader consensus at 74.5% implied probability to win New Mexico's Democratic gubernatorial primary on June 2, driven by her overwhelming support at the March 10 Democratic Party pre-primary convention, where she and challenger Sam Bregman secured ballot spots but she dominated delegate votes, alongside persistent polling edges from February surveys showing her comfortably ahead despite a late-March Epstein-linked jet story that narrowed her margin slightly to around 50% in one Bregman-commissioned poll. Bregman's 23.5% reflects his focus on Albuquerque crime reductions as Bernalillo County District Attorney, appealing to voters prioritizing public safety in a competitive open primary following term limits for Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham. Former Las Cruces Mayor Ken Miyagishima's 0.1% stems from his February switch to independent, exiting the Democratic field. Recent Haaland momentum includes April 3 Animal Protection Voters endorsement and health care public option pitches, with early voting underway amid undecided voters at 20-25% in polls.