Tennessee's redistricting process in May 2026 fractured the heavily Democratic Ninth District into three new seats, prompting incumbent Representative Steve Cohen to withdraw from the August 6 Democratic primary on May 15 while noting pending litigation that could restore prior boundaries. State Representative Justin Pearson, a progressive backed by national groups including Justice Democrats, now holds the clearest path to the nomination amid a field that includes activist DeVante Hill. Traders assign Pearson an 83.5 percent implied probability because Cohen's exit removes the main established challenger, leaving Pearson with stronger grassroots organization and recent name recognition from state legislative work. Hill and Cohen remain distant alternatives if lawsuits alter the map or shift voter priorities before the primary filing deadline.