Incumbent Rep. Steve Cohen holds a trader consensus edge at 57.5% implied probability in the TN-09 Democratic primary due to his long seniority, proven record securing federal funding for the Memphis district, and presumed fundraising advantage including corporate PAC contributions, despite a tight Data for Progress poll from late February showing him at 45% to Justin Pearson's 44% among likely primary voters. Pearson's 39% reflects momentum from his youth, progressive activism, and national profile as a "Tennessee Three" lawmaker expelled then reelected, amplified by a New York Times article this week framing the race as a generational test for Democrats. Activist DeVante Hill lingers at 5% with limited name recognition ahead of Tennessee's closed August 6 primary.