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Política·Eleições Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17

Market icon
Política·Eleições Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17

Cait Conley 55%

Beth Davidson 18%

Peter Chatzky 13.9%

Effie Phillips-Staley 12.7%

Polymarket

$53,904 Vol.

Cait Conley 55%

Beth Davidson 18%

Peter Chatzky 13.9%

Effie Phillips-Staley 12.7%

Polymarket

$53,904 Vol.

Cait Conley

$25,452 Vol.

55%

Beth Davidson

$21,692 Vol.

18%

Peter Chatzky

$2,580 Vol.

14%

Effie Phillips-Staley

$807 Vol.

13%

John Cappello

$656 Vol.

2%

Mike Sacks

$840 Vol.

1%

Jessica Reinmann

$719 Vol.

1%

John Sullivan

$1,158 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley as frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability in the NY-17 Democratic primary, propelled by her special operations veteran background, $1.9 million fundraising total through Q4, and recent endorsements from VoteVets, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, Rep. Jason Crow, and local committees like Dutchess and Peekskill Democrats. Rivals falter amid setbacks: Peter Chatzky's March 19 New York Times exposé on bawdy past Facebook posts eroded his self-funded momentum; Effie Phillips-Staley drew backlash three days ago for anti-Israel remarks on Hasan Piker's show in a Jewish-heavy district; Beth Davidson's recent internal Impact Research poll (23%-17% lead) is discounted by traders skeptical of its origins and high undecideds from February Lake polling (18%-17%). The June 23 primary looms as name recognition builds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,904
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus favors Cait Conley as frontrunner at 55.5% implied probability in the NY-17 Democratic primary, propelled by her special operations veteran background, $1.9 million fundraising total through Q4, and recent endorsements from VoteVets, LGBTQ+ Victory Fund, Rep. Jason Crow, and local committees like Dutchess and Peekskill Democrats. Rivals falter amid setbacks: Peter Chatzky's March 19 New York Times exposé on bawdy past Facebook posts eroded his self-funded momentum; Effie Phillips-Staley drew backlash three days ago for anti-Israel remarks on Hasan Piker's show in a Jewish-heavy district; Beth Davidson's recent internal Impact Research poll (23%-17% lead) is discounted by traders skeptical of its origins and high undecideds from February Lake polling (18%-17%). The June 23 primary looms as name recognition builds.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$53,904
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Cait Conley" at 56%, followed by "Beth Davidson" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17" has generated $53.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17" is "Cait Conley" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Beth Davidson" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-17" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.