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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13

Market icon
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13

Adriano Espaillat 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

Oscar Romero 4.3%

James Felton Keith 3.4%

Polymarket
NOVO

Adriano Espaillat 64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

Oscar Romero 4.3%

James Felton Keith 3.4%

Polymarket
NOVO

Adriano Espaillat

$1,451 Vol.

64%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$1,073 Vol.

29%

Oscar Romero

$2,838 Vol.

4%

James Felton Keith

$646 Vol.

3%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$592 Vol.

1%

Matt Miller

$1,007 Vol.

1%

Jaleel Amador

$568 Vol.

<1%

Megan Rodriguez

$771 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage since 2017, deep ties to the district's Dominican-American community, and recent endorsements from unions like District Council 37 on March 25 and the Congressional Black Caucus in January. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 28.5%, benefits from Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats backing since late 2025, appealing to progressive voters amid demographic shifts toward more renters in Upper Manhattan, as analyzed in recent reporting on the district's evolving politics following NYC's mayoral race. Absent public polls, markets highlight Espaillat's edge but note Avila's competitive fundraising among young insurgents, with no major developments in the past week.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,946
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat leads trader consensus at 64.5% implied probability in the NY-13 Democratic primary on June 23, reflecting his strong incumbency advantage since 2017, deep ties to the district's Dominican-American community, and recent endorsements from unions like District Council 37 on March 25 and the Congressional Black Caucus in January. Challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, at 28.5%, benefits from Democratic Socialists of America and Justice Democrats backing since late 2025, appealing to progressive voters amid demographic shifts toward more renters in Upper Manhattan, as analyzed in recent reporting on the district's evolving politics following NYC's mayoral race. Absent public polls, markets highlight Espaillat's edge but note Avila's competitive fundraising among young insurgents, with no major developments in the past week.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,946
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 64%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 19, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-13" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.