NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement of Darializa Avila Chevalier on May 28 has emerged as the dominant recent catalyst, bolstering the DSA- and Justice Democrats-backed challenger against long-serving incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 23 Democratic primary for New York’s 13th Congressional District. Traders have responded by assigning Avila Chevalier the leading implied probability at 59.5 percent, reflecting her alignment with progressive priorities on housing, immigration enforcement, and labor issues that resonate in Upper Manhattan and northwest Bronx precincts. Espaillat, chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, retains 37.5 percent amid his established local organization, though the endorsement has narrowed his prior advantage. Minor candidates remain negligible, with the race turning on turnout among progressive and establishment Democratic voters in the final weeks.