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Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15

icon for Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15
Política·Primárias

Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15

Ritchie Torres 90%

Michael Blake 5.8%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

Ritchie Torres 90%

Michael Blake 5.8%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$27,938 Vol.

Ritchie Torres

$3,773 Vol.

90%

Michael Blake

$2,872 Vol.

6%

Dalourny Nemorin

$14,136 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$7,158 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,938
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Ritchie Torres commands 90% trader consensus in the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his substantial fundraising edge—nearly $15 million cash on hand—and incumbency advantages in the heavily Democratic Bronx district. Former Assemblymember Michael Blake holds 5.8% implied probability, leveraging criticism of Torres' pro-Israel stance to appeal to progressive voters seeking greater Bronx focus. DSA organizer Dalourny Nemorin (2.4%) and Assemblymember Amanda Septimo (0.3%) linger at low odds following their respective campaign suspensions in April and January over logistical and health issues. The National Action Network's May 7 candidate forum, featuring Torres, Blake, and Jose Vega, highlighted local priorities like affordability without shifting market dynamics, as no public polls exist and historical incumbent reelection rates in safe seats exceed 90%. Late turnout surges or scandals could alter outcomes.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$27,938
Data de Término
23 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ritchie Torres" at 90%, followed by "Michael Blake" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15" has generated $27.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15" is "Ritchie Torres" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Blake" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da primária democrata de NY-15" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.