The Central Bank of Brazil’s September 16 policy meeting carries a near-certain market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Selic cut to 13.75 percent, reflecting the continuation of a gradual easing cycle that began in March after nine months at 15 percent. Recent Focus surveys show year-end 2026 Selic expectations anchored at 13.75 percent, supported by signs of slowing domestic demand and cooling growth that give the Copom room to ease while inflation remains above the 3 percent target. Persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, El Niño effects on food prices, and elevated 2026 IPCA forecasts near 5 percent have kept the committee cautious, yet incoming data through August have not altered the baseline for another measured reduction. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed external commodity pressures ahead of the meeting represent the main scenarios that could shift the balance toward a hold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRedução de 25 pontos-base 98.0%
Sem Alteração 1.7%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$134,257 Vol.
$134,257 Vol.
15 set 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
<1%
Sem Alteração
2%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
98%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Redução de 25 pontos-base 98.0%
Sem Alteração 1.7%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
$134,257 Vol.
$134,257 Vol.
15 set 2026
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$5,941 Vol.
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$6,918 Vol.
<1%
Sem Alteração
$44,240 Vol.
2%
Redução de 25 pontos-base
$65,493 Vol.
98%
Redução de mais de 50 pontos-base
$11,664 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Brazil’s September 16 policy meeting carries a near-certain market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Selic cut to 13.75 percent, reflecting the continuation of a gradual easing cycle that began in March after nine months at 15 percent. Recent Focus surveys show year-end 2026 Selic expectations anchored at 13.75 percent, supported by signs of slowing domestic demand and cooling growth that give the Copom room to ease while inflation remains above the 3 percent target. Persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, El Niño effects on food prices, and elevated 2026 IPCA forecasts near 5 percent have kept the committee cautious, yet incoming data through August have not altered the baseline for another measured reduction. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed external commodity pressures ahead of the meeting represent the main scenarios that could shift the balance toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$134,257Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.The Central Bank of Brazil’s September 16 policy meeting carries a near-certain market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Selic cut to 13.75 percent, reflecting the continuation of a gradual easing cycle that began in March after nine months at 15 percent. Recent Focus surveys show year-end 2026 Selic expectations anchored at 13.75 percent, supported by signs of slowing domestic demand and cooling growth that give the Copom room to ease while inflation remains above the 3 percent target. Persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, El Niño effects on food prices, and elevated 2026 IPCA forecasts near 5 percent have kept the committee cautious, yet incoming data through August have not altered the baseline for another measured reduction. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed external commodity pressures ahead of the meeting represent the main scenarios that could shift the balance toward a hold.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$134,257Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Central Bank of Brazil’s September 16 policy meeting carries a near-certain market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Selic cut to 13.75 percent, reflecting the continuation of a gradual easing cycle that began in March after nine months at 15 percent. Recent Focus surveys show year-end 2026 Selic expectations anchored at 13.75 percent, supported by signs of slowing domestic demand and cooling growth that give the Copom room to ease while inflation remains above the 3 percent target. Persistent upside risks from fiscal stimulus, El Niño effects on food prices, and elevated 2026 IPCA forecasts near 5 percent have kept the committee cautious, yet incoming data through August have not altered the baseline for another measured reduction. A stronger-than-expected inflation print or renewed external commodity pressures ahead of the meeting represent the main scenarios that could shift the balance toward a hold.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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