Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election in October 2026, holds a commanding position in trader consensus due to sustained leads in recent state polls. An IPC survey from mid-July showed him at 53.3% in a stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 26.2% and Gelson Merísio (PSB) at 8.6%, with earlier AtlasIntel and other surveys confirming similar margins. His advantage stems from incumbency benefits, party structure, and fragmented opposition, aligning with historical patterns where sitting governors often consolidate support ahead of voting. Potential shifts could arise from late polling volatility, major scandals, or unexpected coalition realignments in the final weeks, though current evidence points to limited immediate threats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJorginho Mello 92%
João Rodrigues 4.9%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 2.6%
Gelson Merisio <1%
$107,965 Vol.
$107,965 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jorginho Mello
92%
João Rodrigues
5%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
3%
Gelson Merisio
<1%
Adriano Silva
<1%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jorginho Mello 92%
João Rodrigues 4.9%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 2.6%
Gelson Merisio <1%
$107,965 Vol.
$107,965 Vol.
4 out 2026
Jorginho Mello
$24,290 Vol.
92%
João Rodrigues
$1,798 Vol.
5%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$14,748 Vol.
3%
Gelson Merisio
$1,203 Vol.
<1%
Adriano Silva
$929 Vol.
<1%
Marcos Vieira
$1,130 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$62,778 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$1,090 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election in October 2026, holds a commanding position in trader consensus due to sustained leads in recent state polls. An IPC survey from mid-July showed him at 53.3% in a stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 26.2% and Gelson Merísio (PSB) at 8.6%, with earlier AtlasIntel and other surveys confirming similar margins. His advantage stems from incumbency benefits, party structure, and fragmented opposition, aligning with historical patterns where sitting governors often consolidate support ahead of voting. Potential shifts could arise from late polling volatility, major scandals, or unexpected coalition realignments in the final weeks, though current evidence points to limited immediate threats.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$107,965Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election in October 2026, holds a commanding position in trader consensus due to sustained leads in recent state polls. An IPC survey from mid-July showed him at 53.3% in a stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 26.2% and Gelson Merísio (PSB) at 8.6%, with earlier AtlasIntel and other surveys confirming similar margins. His advantage stems from incumbency benefits, party structure, and fragmented opposition, aligning with historical patterns where sitting governors often consolidate support ahead of voting. Potential shifts could arise from late polling volatility, major scandals, or unexpected coalition realignments in the final weeks, though current evidence points to limited immediate threats.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,965Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello, the incumbent PL governor of Santa Catarina seeking re-election in October 2026, holds a commanding position in trader consensus due to sustained leads in recent state polls. An IPC survey from mid-July showed him at 53.3% in a stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of João Rodrigues (PSD) at 26.2% and Gelson Merísio (PSB) at 8.6%, with earlier AtlasIntel and other surveys confirming similar margins. His advantage stems from incumbency benefits, party structure, and fragmented opposition, aligning with historical patterns where sitting governors often consolidate support ahead of voting. Potential shifts could arise from late polling volatility, major scandals, or unexpected coalition realignments in the final weeks, though current evidence points to limited immediate threats.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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