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icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná
Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná

icon for Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná
Política·Eleições Globais

Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná

Sergio Moro 83%

Alexandre Curi 7.5%

Beto Richa 3.5%

Guto Silva 3.3%

Polymarket

$43,570 Vol.

Sergio Moro 83%

Alexandre Curi 7.5%

Beto Richa 3.5%

Guto Silva 3.3%

Polymarket

$43,570 Vol.

Sergio Moro

$34,179 Vol.

83%

Alexandre Curi

$452 Vol.

8%

Beto Richa

$371 Vol.

7%

Guto Silva

$647 Vol.

3%

Enio Verri

$309 Vol.

3%

Rafael Greca

$352 Vol.

3%

Luiz França

$272 Vol.

1%

Requião Filho

$6,990 Vol.

1%

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83% implied probability as the leading contender for the 2026 Paraná governor election, reflecting recent polling trends that place him at 35-48% in first-round simulations with double-digit leads over rivals. Multiple July and early August 2026 surveys from Quaest, Neokemp, and Índice show Moro ahead of Requião Filho (PDT), Rafael Greca (MDB), and Sandro Alex (PSD), following party conventions and candidate definitions. Lower probabilities for names such as Alexandre Curi, Beto Richa, Enio Verri, and Guto Silva align with their reduced visibility or prior withdrawals. Traders appear to price in the stability of these polling gaps and structural factors like incumbency dynamics and party alignments ahead of the October vote.

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$43,570
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sergio Moro (PL) holds an 83% implied probability as the leading contender for the 2026 Paraná governor election, reflecting recent polling trends that place him at 35-48% in first-round simulations with double-digit leads over rivals. Multiple July and early August 2026 surveys from Quaest, Neokemp, and Índice show Moro ahead of Requião Filho (PDT), Rafael Greca (MDB), and Sandro Alex (PSD), following party conventions and candidate definitions. Lower probabilities for names such as Alexandre Curi, Beto Richa, Enio Verri, and Guto Silva align with their reduced visibility or prior withdrawals. Traders appear to price in the stability of these polling gaps and structural factors like incumbency dynamics and party alignments ahead of the October vote.

The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$43,570
Data de Término
5 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Paraná gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sergio Moro" at 83%, followed by "Alexandre Curi" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 83¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná" has generated $43.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná" is "Sergio Moro" at 83%, meaning the market assigns a 83% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alexandre Curi" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição para governador do Paraná" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.