Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains a Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) justice, driven by the high institutional barriers to removal—lifetime tenure until age 75 and impeachment requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, as reaffirmed by Justice Gilmar Mendes in December 2025 limiting such actions to the prosecutor general. Recent scrutiny over alleged ties to the failed Banco Master SA, reported March 11, 2026, has fueled opposition criticism from Bolsonaro allies but triggered no formal proceedings. U.S. sanctions on Moraes were lifted in December 2025, easing external pressure, while a related market prices any STF impeachment before 2027 at just 14%, underscoring traders' view of slim prospects amid political gridlock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$17,333 Vol.
$17,333 Vol.
Sim
$17,333 Vol.
$17,333 Vol.
An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 82% implied probability that Alexandre de Moraes remains a Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) justice, driven by the high institutional barriers to removal—lifetime tenure until age 75 and impeachment requiring a two-thirds Senate vote, as reaffirmed by Justice Gilmar Mendes in December 2025 limiting such actions to the prosecutor general. Recent scrutiny over alleged ties to the failed Banco Master SA, reported March 11, 2026, has fueled opposition criticism from Bolsonaro allies but triggered no formal proceedings. U.S. sanctions on Moraes were lifted in December 2025, easing external pressure, while a related market prices any STF impeachment before 2027 at just 14%, underscoring traders' view of slim prospects amid political gridlock.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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