Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that no STF justice will face successful impeachment before 2027, driven by stalled procedural hurdles despite heightened tensions from the Banco Master scandal implicating justices like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli. Multiple impeachment requests—over ten against Moraes alone in 2026—have been filed in the Senate, including recent ones tied to alleged financial ties, but Senate leadership has not advanced them amid STF interventions, such as Gilmar Mendes' suspensions and rules tightening requirements. Ministers privately view processes as paused until post-October 2026 elections, when a potential rightward Senate shift under Jair Bolsonaro's influence could enable action in 2027, leaving scant time in the current congressional term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$55,839 Vol.
$55,839 Vol.
Sim
$55,839 Vol.
$55,839 Vol.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 85.5% implied probability that no STF justice will face successful impeachment before 2027, driven by stalled procedural hurdles despite heightened tensions from the Banco Master scandal implicating justices like Alexandre de Moraes and Dias Toffoli. Multiple impeachment requests—over ten against Moraes alone in 2026—have been filed in the Senate, including recent ones tied to alleged financial ties, but Senate leadership has not advanced them amid STF interventions, such as Gilmar Mendes' suspensions and rules tightening requirements. Ministers privately view processes as paused until post-October 2026 elections, when a potential rightward Senate shift under Jair Bolsonaro's influence could enable action in 2027, leaving scant time in the current congressional term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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