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icon for Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?
Política·Supremo Tribunal Federal

Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?

icon for Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?
Política·Supremo Tribunal Federal

Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?

$3,446,342 Vol.

31 dez 2026
Polymarket

$3,446,342 Vol.

Polymarket

30 de setembro

$985,889 Vol.

2%

31 de dezembro

$811,554 Vol.

6%

30 de junho de 2027

$47,236 Vol.

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, age 76, recently stated he intends to serve another term after an erroneous late-June NPR report triggered brief retirement speculation that the outlet later retracted. With the Court's next term opening in October 2026 and Republicans holding a Senate majority, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an immediate announcement absent health developments or strategic timing considerations. Historical patterns show justices often coordinate retirements to align with favorable presidential and Senate conditions for confirmation of successors. No official signals from Alito or the White House have altered this baseline since his Wall Street Journal comments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Volume
$3,446,342
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, age 76, recently stated he intends to serve another term after an erroneous late-June NPR report triggered brief retirement speculation that the outlet later retracted. With the Court's next term opening in October 2026 and Republicans holding a Senate majority, trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of an immediate announcement absent health developments or strategic timing considerations. Historical patterns show justices often coordinate retirements to align with favorable presidential and Senate conditions for confirmation of successors. No official signals from Alito or the White House have altered this baseline since his Wall Street Journal comments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Volume
$3,446,342
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 de junho de 2027" at 37%, followed by "31 de dezembro" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 37¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?" has generated $3.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?" is "30 de junho de 2027" at 37%, meaning the market assigns a 37% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "31 de dezembro" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Samuel Alito vai anunciar sua aposentadoria até...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.