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Política·ESCOTO

Vaga do STF em 2026?

Market icon
Política·ESCOTO

Vaga do STF em 2026?

Sim

51% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO

Sim

51% acaso
Polymarket
NOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 52.5% for Yes, driven by ongoing speculation about potential retirements among older justices Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76), intensified by February-March rumors of Alito stepping down at the current term's end in June. No official announcements or health disclosures have emerged in the past 30 days, balancing odds amid historical patterns where justices rarely time exits politically and often serve into their 80s. A retirement letter or unexpected health event could surge Yes probabilities, while public commitments to continue or robust term-end participation might tip toward No before the 2026 midterms shift Senate confirmation dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,157
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket slightly favors a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 52.5% for Yes, driven by ongoing speculation about potential retirements among older justices Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76), intensified by February-March rumors of Alito stepping down at the current term's end in June. No official announcements or health disclosures have emerged in the past 30 days, balancing odds amid historical patterns where justices rarely time exits politically and often serve into their 80s. A retirement letter or unexpected health event could surge Yes probabilities, while public commitments to continue or robust term-end participation might tip toward No before the 2026 midterms shift Senate confirmation dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,157
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vaga do STF em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Vaga na Suprema Corte em 2026?" at 53%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vaga do STF em 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Dec 16, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vaga do STF em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vaga do STF em 2026?" is "Vaga na Suprema Corte em 2026?" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vaga do STF em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.