Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% band, narrowly ahead of 33% for 4.50-4.99%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent upside surprises. March 2026 IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge from Middle East oil shocks and elevated food prices, prompting the Boletim Focus economist median for year-end 2026 to jump to 4.71% last week from 4.36%. Key differentiators include persistence of energy volatility versus core disinflation trends, with the Banco Central do Brasil's Selic at 14.75% post-March cut and April 28-29 Copom meeting as pivotal catalysts ahead of the April IPCA release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado5,00-5,49% 38.7%
4,50-4,99% 32.3%
4,00-4,49% 9.8%
5,50-5,99% 6.5%
$53,723 Vol.
$53,723 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
3%
3,00-3,49%
1%
3,50-3,99%
6%
4,00-4,49%
10%
4,50-4,99%
32%
5,00-5,49%
39%
5,50-5,99%
6%
6,00-6,49%
5%
6,50-6,99%
2%
7,00%+
4%
5,00-5,49% 38.7%
4,50-4,99% 32.3%
4,00-4,49% 9.8%
5,50-5,99% 6.5%
$53,723 Vol.
$53,723 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<3,00%
$3,760 Vol.
3%
3,00-3,49%
$4,283 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99%
$8,445 Vol.
6%
4,00-4,49%
$7,066 Vol.
10%
4,50-4,99%
$6,293 Vol.
32%
5,00-5,49%
$5,756 Vol.
39%
5,50-5,99%
$5,395 Vol.
6%
6,00-6,49%
$4,543 Vol.
5%
6,50-6,99%
$4,838 Vol.
2%
7,00%+
$3,345 Vol.
4%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% band, narrowly ahead of 33% for 4.50-4.99%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent upside surprises. March 2026 IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge from Middle East oil shocks and elevated food prices, prompting the Boletim Focus economist median for year-end 2026 to jump to 4.71% last week from 4.36%. Key differentiators include persistence of energy volatility versus core disinflation trends, with the Banco Central do Brasil's Selic at 14.75% post-March cut and April 28-29 Copom meeting as pivotal catalysts ahead of the April IPCA release.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado Aberto: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$53,723Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPolymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% band, narrowly ahead of 33% for 4.50-4.99%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent upside surprises. March 2026 IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge from Middle East oil shocks and elevated food prices, prompting the Boletim Focus economist median for year-end 2026 to jump to 4.71% last week from 4.36%. Key differentiators include persistence of energy volatility versus core disinflation trends, with the Banco Central do Brasil's Selic at 14.75% post-March cut and April 28-29 Copom meeting as pivotal catalysts ahead of the April IPCA release.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$53,723Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 39% implied probability to Brazil's 2026 annual IPCA inflation landing in the 5.00-5.49% band, narrowly ahead of 33% for 4.50-4.99%, reflecting closely contested sentiment amid recent upside surprises. March 2026 IPCA accelerated to 4.14% year-over-year—above consensus—driven by a 4.59% gasoline surge from Middle East oil shocks and elevated food prices, prompting the Boletim Focus economist median for year-end 2026 to jump to 4.71% last week from 4.36%. Key differentiators include persistence of energy volatility versus core disinflation trends, with the Banco Central do Brasil's Selic at 14.75% post-March cut and April 28-29 Copom meeting as pivotal catalysts ahead of the April IPCA release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions