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Economia·Taxas Globais

Decisão do Banco do México em maio

Market icon
Economia·Taxas Globais

Decisão do Banco do México em maio

mai 7

jun 25

mai 7

jun 25

Sem mudanças 52%

Redução 48%

Aumento 1.4%

Polymarket

$72,859 Vol.

Sem mudanças 52%

Redução 48%

Aumento 1.4%

Polymarket

$72,859 Vol.

Redução

$26,069 Vol.

48%

Sem mudanças

$22,641 Vol.

52%

Aumento

$24,149 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin 51% implied probability for no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 7 meeting, edging out a 48.5% chance of a 25 basis point decrease from the current 6.75%, with hikes at just 1.8%. This tight contest stems from March 26's dovish surprise cut—resuming easing in a split 3-2 vote despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year and core measures at 4.45%, both above the 3% target midpoint. Resilient labor markets (2.6% unemployment) and modest GDP growth projections support further easing, but persistent price pressures favor a pause. April CPI data, due early May, represents the pivotal swing factor ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$72,859
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a razor-thin 51% implied probability for no change in Banxico's target rate at the May 7 meeting, edging out a 48.5% chance of a 25 basis point decrease from the current 6.75%, with hikes at just 1.8%. This tight contest stems from March 26's dovish surprise cut—resuming easing in a split 3-2 vote despite headline inflation accelerating to 4.59% year-over-year and core measures at 4.45%, both above the 3% target midpoint. Resilient labor markets (2.6% unemployment) and modest GDP growth projections support further easing, but persistent price pressures favor a pause. April CPI data, due early May, represents the pivotal swing factor ahead of the decision.

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$72,859
Data de Término
7 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Decisão do Banco do México em maio" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sem mudanças" at 52%, followed by "Redução" at 48%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Decisão do Banco do México em maio" has generated $72.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Decisão do Banco do México em maio," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Decisão do Banco do México em maio" is "Sem mudanças" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Redução" at 48%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Decisão do Banco do México em maio" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.