Persistent inflation pressures from surging energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, alongside yen weakness and resilient first-quarter GDP, have driven near-certain market-implied odds of 98.8% for a 25 basis point policy rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, lifting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 1.0%. Reuters polling of economists shows 94% anticipating this normalization step from the current 0.75% level, consistent with recent hawkish communications from Governor Ueda and board dissents favoring tighter conditions. With the decision just days away, only a sharp geopolitical escalation or unexpectedly weak incoming data would realistically alter the outcome, though both scenarios carry minimal implied probability in current pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento de 25 pontos-base 98.8%
Nenhuma alteração <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
Reduzir taxas <1%
$541,081 Vol.
$541,081 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reduzir taxas
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
99%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
<1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 98.8%
Nenhuma alteração <1%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base <1%
Reduzir taxas <1%
$541,081 Vol.
$541,081 Vol.
16 jun 2026
Reduzir taxas
$89,564 Vol.
<1%
Nenhuma alteração
$139,593 Vol.
1%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$135,583 Vol.
99%
Aumento de mais de 50 pontos-base
$176,342 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from surging energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, alongside yen weakness and resilient first-quarter GDP, have driven near-certain market-implied odds of 98.8% for a 25 basis point policy rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, lifting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 1.0%. Reuters polling of economists shows 94% anticipating this normalization step from the current 0.75% level, consistent with recent hawkish communications from Governor Ueda and board dissents favoring tighter conditions. With the decision just days away, only a sharp geopolitical escalation or unexpectedly weak incoming data would realistically alter the outcome, though both scenarios carry minimal implied probability in current pricing.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Volume
$541,081Data de Término
16 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from surging energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, alongside yen weakness and resilient first-quarter GDP, have driven near-certain market-implied odds of 98.8% for a 25 basis point policy rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, lifting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 1.0%. Reuters polling of economists shows 94% anticipating this normalization step from the current 0.75% level, consistent with recent hawkish communications from Governor Ueda and board dissents favoring tighter conditions. With the decision just days away, only a sharp geopolitical escalation or unexpectedly weak incoming data would realistically alter the outcome, though both scenarios carry minimal implied probability in current pricing.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$541,081Data de Término
16 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from surging energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, alongside yen weakness and resilient first-quarter GDP, have driven near-certain market-implied odds of 98.8% for a 25 basis point policy rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s June 15-16 meeting, lifting the uncollateralized overnight call rate to 1.0%. Reuters polling of economists shows 94% anticipating this normalization step from the current 0.75% level, consistent with recent hawkish communications from Governor Ueda and board dissents favoring tighter conditions. With the decision just days away, only a sharp geopolitical escalation or unexpectedly weak incoming data would realistically alter the outcome, though both scenarios carry minimal implied probability in current pricing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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