Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67%, aligning closely with the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced at the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. January-February industrial output and retail sales exceeded expectations, boosted by exports and holiday consumption, while fixed-asset investment expanded modestly on fiscal stimulus, including a record-high budget deficit around 4%. Persistent property sales declines of 30% in early 2026 and forecasts from IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS clustering at 4.5–4.8% underpin the positioning, with upside to 5.0–6.0% (26%) possible from further policy support under the 15th Five-Year Plan, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado4,0–5,0% 67%
5,0–6,0% 20.7%
6,0-7,0% 4.6%
3,0–4,0% 2.1%
$209,131 Vol.
$209,131 Vol.
31 jan 2026
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
2%
2,0–3,0%
1%
3,0–4,0%
2%
4,0–5,0%
67%
5,0–6,0%
26%
6,0-7,0%
5%
7,0–8,0%
1%
8,0–9,0%
<1%
9,0%+
<1%
4,0–5,0% 67%
5,0–6,0% 20.7%
6,0-7,0% 4.6%
3,0–4,0% 2.1%
$209,131 Vol.
$209,131 Vol.
31 jan 2026
<1,0%
$16,987 Vol.
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$26,512 Vol.
2%
2,0–3,0%
$5,691 Vol.
1%
3,0–4,0%
$6,735 Vol.
2%
4,0–5,0%
$16,458 Vol.
67%
5,0–6,0%
$15,347 Vol.
26%
6,0-7,0%
$18,822 Vol.
5%
7,0–8,0%
$28,457 Vol.
1%
8,0–9,0%
$5,988 Vol.
<1%
9,0%+
$68,134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67%, aligning closely with the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced at the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. January-February industrial output and retail sales exceeded expectations, boosted by exports and holiday consumption, while fixed-asset investment expanded modestly on fiscal stimulus, including a record-high budget deficit around 4%. Persistent property sales declines of 30% in early 2026 and forecasts from IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS clustering at 4.5–4.8% underpin the positioning, with upside to 5.0–6.0% (26%) possible from further policy support under the 15th Five-Year Plan, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Volume
$209,131Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67%, aligning closely with the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced at the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. January-February industrial output and retail sales exceeded expectations, boosted by exports and holiday consumption, while fixed-asset investment expanded modestly on fiscal stimulus, including a record-high budget deficit around 4%. Persistent property sales declines of 30% in early 2026 and forecasts from IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS clustering at 4.5–4.8% underpin the positioning, with upside to 5.0–6.0% (26%) possible from further policy support under the 15th Five-Year Plan, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$209,131Data de Término
31 jan 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors 4.0–5.0% annual GDP growth for China in 2026 at 67%, aligning closely with the government's official target of 4.5–5% announced at the March Two Sessions—the lowest in decades amid property sector weakness and global trade risks. January-February industrial output and retail sales exceeded expectations, boosted by exports and holiday consumption, while fixed-asset investment expanded modestly on fiscal stimulus, including a record-high budget deficit around 4%. Persistent property sales declines of 30% in early 2026 and forecasts from IMF, Goldman Sachs, and UBS clustering at 4.5–4.8% underpin the positioning, with upside to 5.0–6.0% (26%) possible from further policy support under the 15th Five-Year Plan, though Q1 GDP data due mid-April could shift sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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