Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 35% implied probability amid closely contested low-growth outcomes—0-1.0% at 30.6% and contraction below 0% at 25.7%—reflecting stagflation risks from the ECB's March 2026 staff projections, which downgraded growth to 0.9% (minus 0.3 percentage points prior) due to Middle East war-driven energy shocks, with oil peaking near USD 90 per barrel in Q2 and HICP inflation surging to 2.6%. March's S&P Global flash composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling output stagnation alongside cost pressures, while economic sentiment dipped to 96.6. Key swing factors include war escalation (severe scenarios imply 0.6% growth or worse) versus fiscal stimuli like German defense spending and ECB rate path; watch Q1 GDP flash late April and April ECB meeting for catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado<0% 23.5%
2,0-3,0% 18%
4,0-5,0% 16.7%
0-1,0% 11.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
26%
0-1,0%
31%
1,0-2,0%
35%
2,0-3,0%
18%
3,0-4,0%
21%
4,0-5,0%
13%
5,0-6,0%
22%
6,0-7,0%
15%
7,0%+
15%
<0% 23.5%
2,0-3,0% 18%
4,0-5,0% 16.7%
0-1,0% 11.5%
NOVO
NOVO
31 jan 2027
<0%
$0 Vol.
26%
0-1,0%
$360 Vol.
31%
1,0-2,0%
$0 Vol.
35%
2,0-3,0%
$0 Vol.
18%
3,0-4,0%
$0 Vol.
21%
4,0-5,0%
$1,359 Vol.
13%
5,0-6,0%
$0 Vol.
22%
6,0-7,0%
$524 Vol.
15%
7,0%+
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 35% implied probability amid closely contested low-growth outcomes—0-1.0% at 30.6% and contraction below 0% at 25.7%—reflecting stagflation risks from the ECB's March 2026 staff projections, which downgraded growth to 0.9% (minus 0.3 percentage points prior) due to Middle East war-driven energy shocks, with oil peaking near USD 90 per barrel in Q2 and HICP inflation surging to 2.6%. March's S&P Global flash composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling output stagnation alongside cost pressures, while economic sentiment dipped to 96.6. Key swing factors include war escalation (severe scenarios imply 0.6% growth or worse) versus fiscal stimuli like German defense spending and ECB rate path; watch Q1 GDP flash late April and April ECB meeting for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,243Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 35% implied probability amid closely contested low-growth outcomes—0-1.0% at 30.6% and contraction below 0% at 25.7%—reflecting stagflation risks from the ECB's March 2026 staff projections, which downgraded growth to 0.9% (minus 0.3 percentage points prior) due to Middle East war-driven energy shocks, with oil peaking near USD 90 per barrel in Q2 and HICP inflation surging to 2.6%. March's S&P Global flash composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling output stagnation alongside cost pressures, while economic sentiment dipped to 96.6. Key swing factors include war escalation (severe scenarios imply 0.6% growth or worse) versus fiscal stimuli like German defense spending and ECB rate path; watch Q1 GDP flash late April and April ECB meeting for catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,243Data de Término
31 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a subdued Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 35% implied probability amid closely contested low-growth outcomes—0-1.0% at 30.6% and contraction below 0% at 25.7%—reflecting stagflation risks from the ECB's March 2026 staff projections, which downgraded growth to 0.9% (minus 0.3 percentage points prior) due to Middle East war-driven energy shocks, with oil peaking near USD 90 per barrel in Q2 and HICP inflation surging to 2.6%. March's S&P Global flash composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 50.5, signaling output stagnation alongside cost pressures, while economic sentiment dipped to 96.6. Key swing factors include war escalation (severe scenarios imply 0.6% growth or worse) versus fiscal stimuli like German defense spending and ECB rate path; watch Q1 GDP flash late April and April ECB meeting for catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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