Market icon
Economia·Uk

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

Market icon
Economia·Uk

Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?

mai 14

mai 14

0,3-0,6% 45.9%

0,0-0,3% 14%

0,9-1,2% 10.4%

Negativo 3.1%

Polymarket

$21,422 Vol.

0,3-0,6% 45.9%

0,0-0,3% 14%

0,9-1,2% 10.4%

Negativo 3.1%

Polymarket

$21,422 Vol.

Negativo

$1,792 Vol.

3%

0,0-0,3%

$9,258 Vol.

14%

0,3-0,6%

$927 Vol.

39%

0,6-0,9%

$6,870 Vol.

1%

0,9-1,2%

$564 Vol.

10%

1,2-1,5%

$604 Vol.

1%

1,5-1,8%

$507 Vol.

<1%

1,8%+

$901 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 38% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3%-0.6% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting subdued momentum from January's 0.2% three-month expansion and softening March flash PMIs—services at 51.2 and composite at 51.0—amid surging input costs driven by Iran war-related oil price spikes. OECD's March 26 downgrade slashed UK 2026 growth forecasts to 0.7%, the sharpest among majors, amplifying caution versus Pantheon Macroeconomics' revised 0.2% Q1 nowcast. Near-term cyclical weakness per OBR's March outlook supports this positioning, with 13.5% on 0.0%-0.3% capturing downside risks. Watch final services PMI April 7 and ONS February monthly GDP for shifts ahead of May 14 preliminary Q1 release.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,422
Data de Término
14 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 38% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.3%-0.6% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting subdued momentum from January's 0.2% three-month expansion and softening March flash PMIs—services at 51.2 and composite at 51.0—amid surging input costs driven by Iran war-related oil price spikes. OECD's March 26 downgrade slashed UK 2026 growth forecasts to 0.7%, the sharpest among majors, amplifying caution versus Pantheon Macroeconomics' revised 0.2% Q1 nowcast. Near-term cyclical weakness per OBR's March outlook supports this positioning, with 13.5% on 0.0%-0.3% capturing downside risks. Watch final services PMI April 7 and ONS February monthly GDP for shifts ahead of May 14 preliminary Q1 release.

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases

If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.

Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$21,422
Data de Término
14 mai 2026
Mercado Aberto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "0,3-0,6%" at 39%, followed by "0,0-0,3%" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 39¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" has generated $21.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" is "0,3-0,6%" at 39%, meaning the market assigns a 39% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0,0-0,3%" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Crescimento do PIB do Reino Unido no primeiro trimestre de 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.