Despite persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard and maritime militia—including recent harassment of Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal and a near-collision between Philippine Navy and Chinese warships in late March—trader consensus prices "No" military clash at 78%, reflecting contained tensions short of armed exchanges. Back-to-back diplomatic talks resumed this week between Manila and Beijing to address South China Sea disputes, signaling de-escalation efforts amid the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship push for a binding Code of Conduct. U.S.-Philippines alliance enhancements, including joint exercises, provide deterrence, while economic interdependence discourages full escalation before 2027, though upcoming resupply missions and patrols pose risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$209,144 Vol.
$209,144 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$209,144 Vol.
$209,144 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard and maritime militia—including recent harassment of Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal and a near-collision between Philippine Navy and Chinese warships in late March—trader consensus prices "No" military clash at 78%, reflecting contained tensions short of armed exchanges. Back-to-back diplomatic talks resumed this week between Manila and Beijing to address South China Sea disputes, signaling de-escalation efforts amid the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship push for a binding Code of Conduct. U.S.-Philippines alliance enhancements, including joint exercises, provide deterrence, while economic interdependence discourages full escalation before 2027, though upcoming resupply missions and patrols pose risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ET
Volume
$209,144Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard and maritime militia—including recent harassment of Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal and a near-collision between Philippine Navy and Chinese warships in late March—trader consensus prices "No" military clash at 78%, reflecting contained tensions short of armed exchanges. Back-to-back diplomatic talks resumed this week between Manila and Beijing to address South China Sea disputes, signaling de-escalation efforts amid the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship push for a binding Code of Conduct. U.S.-Philippines alliance enhancements, including joint exercises, provide deterrence, while economic interdependence discourages full escalation before 2027, though upcoming resupply missions and patrols pose risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$209,144Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite persistent gray-zone tactics by China's Coast Guard and maritime militia—including recent harassment of Filipino fishermen near Scarborough Shoal and a near-collision between Philippine Navy and Chinese warships in late March—trader consensus prices "No" military clash at 78%, reflecting contained tensions short of armed exchanges. Back-to-back diplomatic talks resumed this week between Manila and Beijing to address South China Sea disputes, signaling de-escalation efforts amid the Philippines' 2026 ASEAN chairmanship push for a binding Code of Conduct. U.S.-Philippines alliance enhancements, including joint exercises, provide deterrence, while economic interdependence discourages full escalation before 2027, though upcoming resupply missions and patrols pose risks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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