Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by Israel's February strike killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran swiftly named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8, stabilizing top leadership despite lingering health rumors. Trader consensus prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 86% likelihood to precede any further leadership upheaval, driven by recent diplomatic signals including Iranian officials' calls for de-escalation with security guarantees and US reports of active discussions via mediators like Qatar and Pakistan. Although April 3 reports indicate stalled talks and Qatar's reluctance, war fatigue and Strait of Hormuz concerns sustain optimism for an imminent agreement over internal Iranian instability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoIran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Iran leadership change or US x Iran ceasefire first?
Leadership Change
$34,032 Vol.
$34,032 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Leadership Change
$34,032 Vol.
$34,032 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by Israel's February strike killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran swiftly named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8, stabilizing top leadership despite lingering health rumors. Trader consensus prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 86% likelihood to precede any further leadership upheaval, driven by recent diplomatic signals including Iranian officials' calls for de-escalation with security guarantees and US reports of active discussions via mediators like Qatar and Pakistan. Although April 3 reports indicate stalled talks and Qatar's reluctance, war fatigue and Strait of Hormuz concerns sustain optimism for an imminent agreement over internal Iranian instability.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
Volume
$34,032Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by Israel's February strike killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran swiftly named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8, stabilizing top leadership despite lingering health rumors. Trader consensus prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 86% likelihood to precede any further leadership upheaval, driven by recent diplomatic signals including Iranian officials' calls for de-escalation with security guarantees and US reports of active discussions via mediators like Qatar and Pakistan. Although April 3 reports indicate stalled talks and Qatar's reluctance, war fatigue and Strait of Hormuz concerns sustain optimism for an imminent agreement over internal Iranian instability.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$34,042Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities sparked by Israel's February strike killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran swiftly named his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor on March 8, stabilizing top leadership despite lingering health rumors. Trader consensus prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 86% likelihood to precede any further leadership upheaval, driven by recent diplomatic signals including Iranian officials' calls for de-escalation with security guarantees and US reports of active discussions via mediators like Qatar and Pakistan. Although April 3 reports indicate stalled talks and Qatar's reluctance, war fatigue and Strait of Hormuz concerns sustain optimism for an imminent agreement over internal Iranian instability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Frequently Asked Questions