Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by March 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any verified overthrow amid intensified US-Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership as recently as March 29–30. US intelligence assessments confirm the government's core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, IRGC command, and Guardian Council—remain intact despite 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and reported massacres. Suppressed uprisings, resilient proxy networks, and no mass defections have solidified trader confidence in regime continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden IRGC mutiny, uncontainable nationwide revolt, or full-scale ground invasion, none of which materialized by the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$63,229,538 Vol.
$63,229,538 Vol.
31 mar 2026
Sim
$63,229,538 Vol.
$63,229,538 Vol.
31 mar 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by March 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any verified overthrow amid intensified US-Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership as recently as March 29–30. US intelligence assessments confirm the government's core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, IRGC command, and Guardian Council—remain intact despite 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and reported massacres. Suppressed uprisings, resilient proxy networks, and no mass defections have solidified trader confidence in regime continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden IRGC mutiny, uncontainable nationwide revolt, or full-scale ground invasion, none of which materialized by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ET
Volume
$63,229,538Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by March 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any verified overthrow amid intensified US-Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership as recently as March 29–30. US intelligence assessments confirm the government's core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, IRGC command, and Guardian Council—remain intact despite 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and reported massacres. Suppressed uprisings, resilient proxy networks, and no mass defections have solidified trader confidence in regime continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden IRGC mutiny, uncontainable nationwide revolt, or full-scale ground invasion, none of which materialized by the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$63,229,538Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 17, 2025, 5:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Não
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Não
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects 100% implied probability for "No" on the Iranian regime falling by March 31, 2026, driven by the absence of any verified overthrow amid intensified US-Israeli airstrikes targeting ballistic missile facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership as recently as March 29–30. US intelligence assessments confirm the government's core structures—including the Supreme Leader's office, IRGC command, and Guardian Council—remain intact despite 2025–2026 protests fueled by economic collapse and reported massacres. Suppressed uprisings, resilient proxy networks, and no mass defections have solidified trader confidence in regime continuity. Realistic shifts would require sudden IRGC mutiny, uncontainable nationwide revolt, or full-scale ground invasion, none of which materialized by the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions