Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters tightly around 20-45 vessels across leading outcomes, reflecting steady maritime traffic patterns consistent with historical averages of 25-35 large commercial vessels weekly, including oil tankers vital to Persian Gulf exports. No major disruptions—such as Iranian naval seizures, mine threats, or military interceptions—have occurred in the past 30 days, despite heightened tensions from Iran's Gulf naval drills earlier in March and broader regional conflicts involving Houthi Red Sea attacks rerouting some shipping elsewhere. US 5th Fleet patrols maintain open passage, keeping odds balanced; separation could arise from sudden escalations like airstrikes, diplomatic breakdowns, or verified AIS data showing traffic halts before week's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)
40-44 33%
20-24 28%
25-29 28%
45+ 28%
NEW
NEW
Mar 29, 2026
<10
4%
10-14
11%
15-19
20%
20-24
28%
25-29
28%
30-34
27%
35-39
27%
40-44
22%
45+
28%
40-44 33%
20-24 28%
25-29 28%
45+ 28%
NEW
NEW
Mar 29, 2026
<10
$258 Vol.
4%
10-14
$33 Vol.
11%
15-19
$33 Vol.
20%
20-24
$53 Vol.
28%
25-29
$61 Vol.
28%
30-34
$55 Vol.
27%
35-39
$33 Vol.
27%
40-44
$136 Vol.
22%
45+
$610 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters tightly around 20-45 vessels across leading outcomes, reflecting steady maritime traffic patterns consistent with historical averages of 25-35 large commercial vessels weekly, including oil tankers vital to Persian Gulf exports. No major disruptions—such as Iranian naval seizures, mine threats, or military interceptions—have occurred in the past 30 days, despite heightened tensions from Iran's Gulf naval drills earlier in March and broader regional conflicts involving Houthi Red Sea attacks rerouting some shipping elsewhere. US 5th Fleet patrols maintain open passage, keeping odds balanced; separation could arise from sudden escalations like airstrikes, diplomatic breakdowns, or verified AIS data showing traffic halts before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,272Data de Término
Mar 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters tightly around 20-45 vessels across leading outcomes, reflecting steady maritime traffic patterns consistent with historical averages of 25-35 large commercial vessels weekly, including oil tankers vital to Persian Gulf exports. No major disruptions—such as Iranian naval seizures, mine threats, or military interceptions—have occurred in the past 30 days, despite heightened tensions from Iran's Gulf naval drills earlier in March and broader regional conflicts involving Houthi Red Sea attacks rerouting some shipping elsewhere. US 5th Fleet patrols maintain open passage, keeping odds balanced; separation could arise from sudden escalations like airstrikes, diplomatic breakdowns, or verified AIS data showing traffic halts before week's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$1,272Data de Término
Mar 29, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Strait of Hormuz ship transits for March 23-29 clusters tightly around 20-45 vessels across leading outcomes, reflecting steady maritime traffic patterns consistent with historical averages of 25-35 large commercial vessels weekly, including oil tankers vital to Persian Gulf exports. No major disruptions—such as Iranian naval seizures, mine threats, or military interceptions—have occurred in the past 30 days, despite heightened tensions from Iran's Gulf naval drills earlier in March and broader regional conflicts involving Houthi Red Sea attacks rerouting some shipping elsewhere. US 5th Fleet patrols maintain open passage, keeping odds balanced; separation could arise from sudden escalations like airstrikes, diplomatic breakdowns, or verified AIS data showing traffic halts before week's end.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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