Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes near Hengam and nearby islands like Larak in July and August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian defensive positions without producing any verified transfer of administrative or military control. Iran has reinforced troops, naval assets, and minefields across its Gulf islands while asserting sovereignty, and state media continue to report routine operations around Hengam and Qeshm. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near the island further highlighted shipping risks but did not alter territorial status. Markets reflect this stability, pricing any near-term loss of primary Iranian control as a low-probability outcome absent a major escalation or negotiated concession.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$208,449 Vol.
30 set 2026
30 de setembro
1%
$208,449 Vol.
30 de setembro
$2,609 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes near Hengam and nearby islands like Larak in July and August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian defensive positions without producing any verified transfer of administrative or military control. Iran has reinforced troops, naval assets, and minefields across its Gulf islands while asserting sovereignty, and state media continue to report routine operations around Hengam and Qeshm. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near the island further highlighted shipping risks but did not alter territorial status. Markets reflect this stability, pricing any near-term loss of primary Iranian control as a low-probability outcome absent a major escalation or negotiated concession.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,449Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes near Hengam and nearby islands like Larak in July and August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian defensive positions without producing any verified transfer of administrative or military control. Iran has reinforced troops, naval assets, and minefields across its Gulf islands while asserting sovereignty, and state media continue to report routine operations around Hengam and Qeshm. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near the island further highlighted shipping risks but did not alter territorial status. Markets reflect this stability, pricing any near-term loss of primary Iranian control as a low-probability outcome absent a major escalation or negotiated concession.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,449Data de Término
1 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026, including reported US strikes near Hengam and nearby islands like Larak in July and August, have drawn trader attention to Iranian defensive positions without producing any verified transfer of administrative or military control. Iran has reinforced troops, naval assets, and minefields across its Gulf islands while asserting sovereignty, and state media continue to report routine operations around Hengam and Qeshm. A September 13 projectile strike on an Iranian commercial vessel near the island further highlighted shipping risks but did not alter territorial status. Markets reflect this stability, pricing any near-term loss of primary Iranian control as a low-probability outcome absent a major escalation or negotiated concession.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions