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Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?

Market icon

Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

28% acaso
Polymarket

$37,868 Vol.

Sim

28% acaso
Polymarket

$37,868 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent U.S. military surges to the Middle East—including over 50,000 troops amid escalating tensions with Iran and deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division and Marines—traders price a 72% chance of no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, reflecting official Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any Gaza deployment plans. President Trump's Gaza peace framework, advanced via the Board of Peace to phase two in early 2026, emphasizes Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and reconstruction oversight from Israel rather than American boots on the ground, with prior 2025 deployments limited to monitoring from Israel. Fresh Hamas demands for withdrawal guarantees before disarmament talks, reported April 2, introduce uncertainty but no signals of U.S. ground involvement, underscoring political aversion to direct intervention amid historical precedents like Iraq and Afghanistan.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.

US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.

High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37,868
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite recent U.S. military surges to the Middle East—including over 50,000 troops amid escalating tensions with Iran and deployments of the 82nd Airborne Division and Marines—traders price a 72% chance of no U.S. forces entering Gaza before 2027, reflecting official Pentagon and CENTCOM denials of any Gaza deployment plans. President Trump's Gaza peace framework, advanced via the Board of Peace to phase two in early 2026, emphasizes Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and reconstruction oversight from Israel rather than American boots on the ground, with prior 2025 deployments limited to monitoring from Israel. Fresh Hamas demands for withdrawal guarantees before disarmament talks, reported April 2, introduce uncertainty but no signals of U.S. ground involvement, underscoring political aversion to direct intervention amid historical precedents like Iraq and Afghanistan.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify.

US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify.

High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$37,868
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:07 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active regular US military personnel physically enter Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip to qualify. Entering the maritime territory, as occurred during the US’s attempt to construct a floating pier in 2024, or entering the airspace will not qualify. US military personnel entering buffer zones under control of Israel will not qualify. High ranking U.S. service members entering Gaza for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage), military contractors, military advisors, and special operation forces will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" has generated $37.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" is "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Forças dos EUA em Gaza antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.