Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah, including a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plan approved in September 2025 and a four-month implementation timeline, have stalled amid Hezbollah's explicit rejections in February and March 2026. An ongoing war with Israel since March 2 has intensified military operations against Hezbollah positions, sidelining disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Recent tensions peaked with Lebanon's expulsion of the Iranian ambassador on March 31—opposed by Hezbollah—exposing state-proxy rifts, while a fresh international joint statement urged immediate disarmament. Influential Shiite clans have pledged loyalty to the state, signaling potential shifts, but Hezbollah's rearmament and ceasefire violations sustain high barriers to compliance ahead of any Security Council deliberations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Hezbollah vai se desarmar até...?
O Hezbollah vai se desarmar até...?
$925,067 Vol.
31 mar 2026
31 de dezembro
30%
$925,067 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$18,475 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah, including a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plan approved in September 2025 and a four-month implementation timeline, have stalled amid Hezbollah's explicit rejections in February and March 2026. An ongoing war with Israel since March 2 has intensified military operations against Hezbollah positions, sidelining disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Recent tensions peaked with Lebanon's expulsion of the Iranian ambassador on March 31—opposed by Hezbollah—exposing state-proxy rifts, while a fresh international joint statement urged immediate disarmament. Influential Shiite clans have pledged loyalty to the state, signaling potential shifts, but Hezbollah's rearmament and ceasefire violations sustain high barriers to compliance ahead of any Security Council deliberations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$925,067Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah, including a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plan approved in September 2025 and a four-month implementation timeline, have stalled amid Hezbollah's explicit rejections in February and March 2026. An ongoing war with Israel since March 2 has intensified military operations against Hezbollah positions, sidelining disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Recent tensions peaked with Lebanon's expulsion of the Iranian ambassador on March 31—opposed by Hezbollah—exposing state-proxy rifts, while a fresh international joint statement urged immediate disarmament. Influential Shiite clans have pledged loyalty to the state, signaling potential shifts, but Hezbollah's rearmament and ceasefire violations sustain high barriers to compliance ahead of any Security Council deliberations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$925,067Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lebanese government efforts to disarm Hezbollah, including a Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) plan approved in September 2025 and a four-month implementation timeline, have stalled amid Hezbollah's explicit rejections in February and March 2026. An ongoing war with Israel since March 2 has intensified military operations against Hezbollah positions, sidelining disarmament per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Recent tensions peaked with Lebanon's expulsion of the Iranian ambassador on March 31—opposed by Hezbollah—exposing state-proxy rifts, while a fresh international joint statement urged immediate disarmament. Influential Shiite clans have pledged loyalty to the state, signaling potential shifts, but Hezbollah's rearmament and ceasefire violations sustain high barriers to compliance ahead of any Security Council deliberations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions