Ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including plans to maintain control up to the Litani River, underscore the fragile November 2024 ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal and disarmament south of the river enforced by the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the past week, IDF officials deemed full disarmament unrealistic without occupying all of Lebanon, while Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed it as a core goal independent of Iran; Hezbollah rejected Lebanese government timelines and launched rockets amid Israeli strikes killing seven in the south two days ago. No official announcement from Hezbollah leadership committing to relinquish its arsenal has emerged, sustaining trader skepticism amid diplomatic pressures and influential Shiite clans' calls for state monopoly on arms. Security Council briefings this month may influence dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO Hezbollah vai se desarmar até...?
O Hezbollah vai se desarmar até...?
$925,211 Vol.
31 mar 2026
31 de dezembro
30%
$925,211 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$18,619 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including plans to maintain control up to the Litani River, underscore the fragile November 2024 ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal and disarmament south of the river enforced by the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the past week, IDF officials deemed full disarmament unrealistic without occupying all of Lebanon, while Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed it as a core goal independent of Iran; Hezbollah rejected Lebanese government timelines and launched rockets amid Israeli strikes killing seven in the south two days ago. No official announcement from Hezbollah leadership committing to relinquish its arsenal has emerged, sustaining trader skepticism amid diplomatic pressures and influential Shiite clans' calls for state monopoly on arms. Security Council briefings this month may influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Volume
$925,211Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including plans to maintain control up to the Litani River, underscore the fragile November 2024 ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal and disarmament south of the river enforced by the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the past week, IDF officials deemed full disarmament unrealistic without occupying all of Lebanon, while Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed it as a core goal independent of Iran; Hezbollah rejected Lebanese government timelines and launched rockets amid Israeli strikes killing seven in the south two days ago. No official announcement from Hezbollah leadership committing to relinquish its arsenal has emerged, sustaining trader skepticism amid diplomatic pressures and influential Shiite clans' calls for state monopoly on arms. Security Council briefings this month may influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah officially announces it will disarm in Lebanon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Volume
$925,211Data de Término
31 mar 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including plans to maintain control up to the Litani River, underscore the fragile November 2024 ceasefire under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which mandates Hezbollah's withdrawal and disarmament south of the river enforced by the Lebanese Armed Forces. In the past week, IDF officials deemed full disarmament unrealistic without occupying all of Lebanon, while Defense Minister Israel Katz reaffirmed it as a core goal independent of Iran; Hezbollah rejected Lebanese government timelines and launched rockets amid Israeli strikes killing seven in the south two days ago. No official announcement from Hezbollah leadership committing to relinquish its arsenal has emerged, sustaining trader skepticism amid diplomatic pressures and influential Shiite clans' calls for state monopoly on arms. Security Council briefings this month may influence dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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