Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·NATO

Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

icon for Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?
Geopolítica·NATO

Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

jan 1, 2027

jan 1, 2027

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket

$248,591 Vol.

Sim

7% chance
Polymarket

$248,591 Vol.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Recent intelligence warnings from Poland, Czechia, and France highlight Russian hybrid activities and possible limited probes on NATO's eastern flank in coming months, yet alliance leaders including Secretary General Mark Rutte and Military Committee Chair Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone stress that such actions remain below the Article 5 threshold. NATO maintains extensive regional defense plans, standardized decision processes, and enhanced capabilities on standby, with officials noting that direct attacks are deterred by unified resolve and the high costs to Moscow. No invocation has occurred amid ongoing airspace violations and sabotage attempts, and assessments often flag higher-risk windows after 2026. Trader consensus reflects this sustained deterrence and sub-threshold management through late 2026.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$248,591
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.Recent intelligence warnings from Poland, Czechia, and France highlight Russian hybrid activities and possible limited probes on NATO's eastern flank in coming months, yet alliance leaders including Secretary General Mark Rutte and Military Committee Chair Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone stress that such actions remain below the Article 5 threshold. NATO maintains extensive regional defense plans, standardized decision processes, and enhanced capabilities on standby, with officials noting that direct attacks are deterred by unified resolve and the high costs to Moscow. No invocation has occurred amid ongoing airspace violations and sabotage attempts, and assessments often flag higher-risk windows after 2026. Trader consensus reflects this sustained deterrence and sub-threshold management through late 2026.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$248,591
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Algum país deixará a OTAN até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

Algum país deixará a OTAN até 31 de dezembro de 2026?

4%
Sim
icon for Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?

54%
icon for Os EUA sairão da OTAN antes de 2027?

Os EUA sairão da OTAN antes de 2027?

2%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" has generated $248.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" is "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.