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icon for Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

icon for Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?

dez 31

dez 31

Sim

16% chance
Polymarket

$81,487 Vol.

Sim

16% chance
Polymarket

$81,487 Vol.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.NATO’s eastern flank has seen only sub-threshold incidents, such as the September 2025 drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia, which triggered Article 4 consultations and defensive measures like Operation Eastern Sentry rather than collective defense activation. Russia’s operations remain focused on non-NATO Ukraine, while alliance leaders have explicitly ruled out invocation in comparable episodes near Turkey. Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” because invocation requires unanimous consensus among members on what constitutes an armed attack, a high bar that current deterrence posture and diplomatic channels have so far maintained amid stable risk dynamics through the end of 2026.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$81,487
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.NATO’s eastern flank has seen only sub-threshold incidents, such as the September 2025 drone incursions into Poland and airspace violations over Estonia, which triggered Article 4 consultations and defensive measures like Operation Eastern Sentry rather than collective defense activation. Russia’s operations remain focused on non-NATO Ukraine, while alliance leaders have explicitly ruled out invocation in comparable episodes near Turkey. Traders assign an 84.5% probability to “No” because invocation requires unanimous consensus among members on what constitutes an armed attack, a high bar that current deterrence posture and diplomatic channels have so far maintained amid stable risk dynamics through the end of 2026.

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.
Volume
$81,487
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 1:47 PM ET
If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 16¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" has generated $81.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" is "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" at 16%, meaning the market assigns a 16% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Artigo 5 da OTAN antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.