NATO's institutional framework, established in 1949 and reinforced by recent expansions including Finland and Sweden, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Russia's actions in Ukraine have sustained alliance cohesion through joint defense commitments and Article 5 invocations, with no member state advancing formal withdrawal or termination procedures in the past year. Senate-level support in the United States and European parliamentary backing remain consistent across recent votes and summits, creating high barriers to rapid breakup. While improbable, credible shifts could still emerge from coordinated exits by multiple major powers, a fundamental treaty renegotiation triggered by fiscal disputes, or an unforeseen security realignment that prompts mass accession withdrawals within the narrow remaining window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?
A OTAN se dissolve antes de 2027?
Sim
2% chance
$123,861 Vol.
$123,861 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
2% chance
$123,861 Vol.
$123,861 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, established in 1949 and reinforced by recent expansions including Finland and Sweden, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Russia's actions in Ukraine have sustained alliance cohesion through joint defense commitments and Article 5 invocations, with no member state advancing formal withdrawal or termination procedures in the past year. Senate-level support in the United States and European parliamentary backing remain consistent across recent votes and summits, creating high barriers to rapid breakup. While improbable, credible shifts could still emerge from coordinated exits by multiple major powers, a fundamental treaty renegotiation triggered by fiscal disputes, or an unforeseen security realignment that prompts mass accession withdrawals within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$123,861Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.NATO's institutional framework, established in 1949 and reinforced by recent expansions including Finland and Sweden, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Russia's actions in Ukraine have sustained alliance cohesion through joint defense commitments and Article 5 invocations, with no member state advancing formal withdrawal or termination procedures in the past year. Senate-level support in the United States and European parliamentary backing remain consistent across recent votes and summits, creating high barriers to rapid breakup. While improbable, credible shifts could still emerge from coordinated exits by multiple major powers, a fundamental treaty renegotiation triggered by fiscal disputes, or an unforeseen security realignment that prompts mass accession withdrawals within the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$123,861Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NATO's institutional framework, established in 1949 and reinforced by recent expansions including Finland and Sweden, underpins trader consensus against dissolution before 2027. Russia's actions in Ukraine have sustained alliance cohesion through joint defense commitments and Article 5 invocations, with no member state advancing formal withdrawal or termination procedures in the past year. Senate-level support in the United States and European parliamentary backing remain consistent across recent votes and summits, creating high barriers to rapid breakup. While improbable, credible shifts could still emerge from coordinated exits by multiple major powers, a fundamental treaty renegotiation triggered by fiscal disputes, or an unforeseen security realignment that prompts mass accession withdrawals within the narrow remaining window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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