Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for European Union dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and robust institutional continuity amid ongoing challenges like Ukraine aid and economic integration. Recent European Commission proposals to reinforce Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve adjustments, announced days ago, alongside final approvals for sustainability regulations in February, underscore operational resilience rather than fracture. French Foreign Minister's condemnation of far-right mayors removing EU flags highlights mainstream commitment to unity. With nine months until resolution on December 31, 2026, only catastrophic scenarios—such as a cascade of major exits from Germany, France, or Italy triggered by economic meltdown or war escalation—could plausibly alter this near-certain outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoA UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
A UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
Sim
$159,659 Vol.
$159,659 Vol.
Sim
$159,659 Vol.
$159,659 Vol.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 96.3% for European Union dissolution before 2027, driven by the absence of any member state invoking Article 50 since Brexit and robust institutional continuity amid ongoing challenges like Ukraine aid and economic integration. Recent European Commission proposals to reinforce Emissions Trading System stability via Market Stability Reserve adjustments, announced days ago, alongside final approvals for sustainability regulations in February, underscore operational resilience rather than fracture. French Foreign Minister's condemnation of far-right mayors removing EU flags highlights mainstream commitment to unity. With nine months until resolution on December 31, 2026, only catastrophic scenarios—such as a cascade of major exits from Germany, France, or Italy triggered by economic meltdown or war escalation—could plausibly alter this near-certain outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
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