The near-certain trader consensus against EU dissolution stems from the bloc's entrenched treaty-based institutions, single market interdependence, and ongoing member-state coordination on shared priorities like defense spending and cohesion policy adjustments through 2027. Recent economic forecasts project continued albeit slower growth amid external pressures, while mid-term reviews of structural funds and national political realignments, such as Germany's grand coalition, underscore operational continuity rather than fragmentation. No major secession movements or collective withdrawal proposals have emerged in the past year. Extreme scenarios that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous treaty repudiations triggered by cascading crises, though these remain without precedent or current indicators.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
A UE dissolve-se antes de 2027?
Sim
$169,562 Vol.
$169,562 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$169,562 Vol.
$169,562 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against EU dissolution stems from the bloc's entrenched treaty-based institutions, single market interdependence, and ongoing member-state coordination on shared priorities like defense spending and cohesion policy adjustments through 2027. Recent economic forecasts project continued albeit slower growth amid external pressures, while mid-term reviews of structural funds and national political realignments, such as Germany's grand coalition, underscore operational continuity rather than fragmentation. No major secession movements or collective withdrawal proposals have emerged in the past year. Extreme scenarios that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous treaty repudiations triggered by cascading crises, though these remain without precedent or current indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$169,562Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The near-certain trader consensus against EU dissolution stems from the bloc's entrenched treaty-based institutions, single market interdependence, and ongoing member-state coordination on shared priorities like defense spending and cohesion policy adjustments through 2027. Recent economic forecasts project continued albeit slower growth amid external pressures, while mid-term reviews of structural funds and national political realignments, such as Germany's grand coalition, underscore operational continuity rather than fragmentation. No major secession movements or collective withdrawal proposals have emerged in the past year. Extreme scenarios that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous treaty repudiations triggered by cascading crises, though these remain without precedent or current indicators.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$169,562Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus against EU dissolution stems from the bloc's entrenched treaty-based institutions, single market interdependence, and ongoing member-state coordination on shared priorities like defense spending and cohesion policy adjustments through 2027. Recent economic forecasts project continued albeit slower growth amid external pressures, while mid-term reviews of structural funds and national political realignments, such as Germany's grand coalition, underscore operational continuity rather than fragmentation. No major secession movements or collective withdrawal proposals have emerged in the past year. Extreme scenarios that could still shift probabilities include simultaneous treaty repudiations triggered by cascading crises, though these remain without precedent or current indicators.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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