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icon for A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?
Política·Emirados Árabes Unidos

A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?

icon for A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?
Política·Emirados Árabes Unidos

A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?

Sim

4% chance
Polymarket

$38,750 Vol.

Sim

4% chance
Polymarket

$38,750 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. OPEC+ continues coordinated production decisions and monthly ministerial reviews through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman reaffirming commitments to market stability and gradual output adjustments. Recent actions, such as the approved 188,000 barrels-per-day increase effective that month and the pause for October while preparing 2027 quota baselines, show ongoing institutional operations despite the UAE's May exit and regional supply disruptions. This pattern of sustained cooperation and forward planning underpins the strong trader consensus against dissolution before year-end. Additional major exits or breakdowns in quota talks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,750
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. OPEC+ continues coordinated production decisions and monthly ministerial reviews through September 2026, with core members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, and Oman reaffirming commitments to market stability and gradual output adjustments. Recent actions, such as the approved 188,000 barrels-per-day increase effective that month and the pause for October while preparing 2027 quota baselines, show ongoing institutional operations despite the UAE's May exit and regional supply disruptions. This pattern of sustained cooperation and forward planning underpins the strong trader consensus against dissolution before year-end. Additional major exits or breakdowns in quota talks remain the primary variables that could alter assessments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.

- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.

- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.

An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC. - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC. - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity. An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,750
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" has generated $38.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" is "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A OPEP se dissolve em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.