Traders assign an 91.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026 because the cartel remains actively engaged in oil-market management despite recent membership shifts. Core producers including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary output adjustments, as evidenced by the May 3, 2026 OPEC+ meeting that approved a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase for June amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. OPEC’s May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, which lowered its global demand-growth forecast, further demonstrates ongoing institutional operations and data-driven decision-making. While the UAE’s May 1 exit removed a major producer and highlighted internal tensions, it has not triggered broader fragmentation or halted regular reporting and meetings scheduled through year-end. Realistic challenges to this consensus would require coordinated withdrawals by additional key members or a formal dissolution announcement, neither of which appears imminent given current production discipline and spare-capacity dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$19,078 Vol.
$19,078 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$19,078 Vol.
$19,078 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign an 91.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026 because the cartel remains actively engaged in oil-market management despite recent membership shifts. Core producers including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary output adjustments, as evidenced by the May 3, 2026 OPEC+ meeting that approved a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase for June amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. OPEC’s May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, which lowered its global demand-growth forecast, further demonstrates ongoing institutional operations and data-driven decision-making. While the UAE’s May 1 exit removed a major producer and highlighted internal tensions, it has not triggered broader fragmentation or halted regular reporting and meetings scheduled through year-end. Realistic challenges to this consensus would require coordinated withdrawals by additional key members or a formal dissolution announcement, neither of which appears imminent given current production discipline and spare-capacity dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$19,078Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Traders assign an 91.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026 because the cartel remains actively engaged in oil-market management despite recent membership shifts. Core producers including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary output adjustments, as evidenced by the May 3, 2026 OPEC+ meeting that approved a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase for June amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. OPEC’s May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, which lowered its global demand-growth forecast, further demonstrates ongoing institutional operations and data-driven decision-making. While the UAE’s May 1 exit removed a major producer and highlighted internal tensions, it has not triggered broader fragmentation or halted regular reporting and meetings scheduled through year-end. Realistic challenges to this consensus would require coordinated withdrawals by additional key members or a formal dissolution announcement, neither of which appears imminent given current production discipline and spare-capacity dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$19,078Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 91.5% implied probability that OPEC will not dissolve in 2026 because the cartel remains actively engaged in oil-market management despite recent membership shifts. Core producers including Saudi Arabia continue coordinating voluntary output adjustments, as evidenced by the May 3, 2026 OPEC+ meeting that approved a modest 188,000 barrel-per-day quota increase for June amid supply disruptions from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues. OPEC’s May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, which lowered its global demand-growth forecast, further demonstrates ongoing institutional operations and data-driven decision-making. While the UAE’s May 1 exit removed a major producer and highlighted internal tensions, it has not triggered broader fragmentation or halted regular reporting and meetings scheduled through year-end. Realistic challenges to this consensus would require coordinated withdrawals by additional key members or a formal dissolution announcement, neither of which appears imminent given current production discipline and spare-capacity dynamics.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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