Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, undeterred by the UAE's exit effective May 1, which shrinks core membership to 11 nations amid Brent crude volatility around $110 per barrel from Middle East tensions. Anchoring this skin-in-the-game sentiment is Saudi Arabia's dominant spare capacity and leadership, evidenced by the April 5 OPEC+ output adjustment pact among eight key producers reaffirming market stability coordination. Historical resilience to prior departures like Angola's in 2024 bolsters conviction. Realistic challenges include cascading exits from quota-strained Iraq or Kuwait if UAE ramps production aggressively, or JMMC discord at the May 3 meeting fracturing unity further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
NOVO
NOVO
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, undeterred by the UAE's exit effective May 1, which shrinks core membership to 11 nations amid Brent crude volatility around $110 per barrel from Middle East tensions. Anchoring this skin-in-the-game sentiment is Saudi Arabia's dominant spare capacity and leadership, evidenced by the April 5 OPEC+ output adjustment pact among eight key producers reaffirming market stability coordination. Historical resilience to prior departures like Angola's in 2024 bolsters conviction. Realistic challenges include cascading exits from quota-strained Iraq or Kuwait if UAE ramps production aggressively, or JMMC discord at the May 3 meeting fracturing unity further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,400Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, undeterred by the UAE's exit effective May 1, which shrinks core membership to 11 nations amid Brent crude volatility around $110 per barrel from Middle East tensions. Anchoring this skin-in-the-game sentiment is Saudi Arabia's dominant spare capacity and leadership, evidenced by the April 5 OPEC+ output adjustment pact among eight key producers reaffirming market stability coordination. Historical resilience to prior departures like Angola's in 2024 bolsters conviction. Realistic challenges include cascading exits from quota-strained Iraq or Kuwait if UAE ramps production aggressively, or JMMC discord at the May 3 meeting fracturing unity further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,400Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability that OPEC endures through 2026, undeterred by the UAE's exit effective May 1, which shrinks core membership to 11 nations amid Brent crude volatility around $110 per barrel from Middle East tensions. Anchoring this skin-in-the-game sentiment is Saudi Arabia's dominant spare capacity and leadership, evidenced by the April 5 OPEC+ output adjustment pact among eight key producers reaffirming market stability coordination. Historical resilience to prior departures like Angola's in 2024 bolsters conviction. Realistic challenges include cascading exits from quota-strained Iraq or Kuwait if UAE ramps production aggressively, or JMMC discord at the May 3 meeting fracturing unity further.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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