OPEC's ongoing operational continuity, including coordinated production adjustments and updated 2026 global oil demand forecasts released in mid-May, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. Core members such as Saudi Arabia continue enforcing output quotas and joint policy decisions through OPEC+, sustaining the cartel's influence despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit amid Iran-related tensions. This resilience reflects historical precedent where membership shifts have not triggered outright collapse, with traders pricing in the group's structural capacity to manage supply amid volatility in Treasury yields and energy benchmarks. While further defections or intensified geopolitical shocks could erode cohesion, current fundamentals point to sustained institutional functions rather than dissolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$17,098 Vol.
$17,098 Vol.
31 dez 2026
$17,098 Vol.
$17,098 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's ongoing operational continuity, including coordinated production adjustments and updated 2026 global oil demand forecasts released in mid-May, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. Core members such as Saudi Arabia continue enforcing output quotas and joint policy decisions through OPEC+, sustaining the cartel's influence despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit amid Iran-related tensions. This resilience reflects historical precedent where membership shifts have not triggered outright collapse, with traders pricing in the group's structural capacity to manage supply amid volatility in Treasury yields and energy benchmarks. While further defections or intensified geopolitical shocks could erode cohesion, current fundamentals point to sustained institutional functions rather than dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$17,098Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC's ongoing operational continuity, including coordinated production adjustments and updated 2026 global oil demand forecasts released in mid-May, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. Core members such as Saudi Arabia continue enforcing output quotas and joint policy decisions through OPEC+, sustaining the cartel's influence despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit amid Iran-related tensions. This resilience reflects historical precedent where membership shifts have not triggered outright collapse, with traders pricing in the group's structural capacity to manage supply amid volatility in Treasury yields and energy benchmarks. While further defections or intensified geopolitical shocks could erode cohesion, current fundamentals point to sustained institutional functions rather than dissolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$17,098Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OPEC's ongoing operational continuity, including coordinated production adjustments and updated 2026 global oil demand forecasts released in mid-May, underpins the 90.5% market-implied probability against dissolution this year. Core members such as Saudi Arabia continue enforcing output quotas and joint policy decisions through OPEC+, sustaining the cartel's influence despite the United Arab Emirates' May 1 exit amid Iran-related tensions. This resilience reflects historical precedent where membership shifts have not triggered outright collapse, with traders pricing in the group's structural capacity to manage supply amid volatility in Treasury yields and energy benchmarks. While further defections or intensified geopolitical shocks could erode cohesion, current fundamentals point to sustained institutional functions rather than dissolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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