**Nigel Farage remains the sitting Reform UK MP for Clacton following his August 2026 by-election victory, which he triggered himself in July amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into a £5 million pre-2024 gift from donor Christopher Harborne.** The probe, paused during his resignation, resumed immediately after the result. Major parties boycotted the contest, leaving novelty candidates like Count Binface as the main opposition. A further by-election in 2026 would require the standards commissioner to find a rules breach, a suspension of 10 or more sitting days by the Committee on Standards, and a successful recall petition backed by 10% of Clacton voters over six weeks. These sequential steps, plus typical parliamentary timelines, make completion before December 31 improbable. No other vacancy triggers, such as resignation or disqualification, have emerged since the August poll. Traders therefore assign the “No” outcome a 74% implied probability, reflecting the limited window and procedural hurdles.