Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine over Easter weekend, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy after Kyiv's proposed energy infrastructure truce was ignored, underscore the absence of de-escalation amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks. Recent Reuters reports highlight Russia's insistence on Ukraine's immediate withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories as a precondition, coupled with U.S. offers linking security guarantees to territorial concessions—demands Zelenskyy has rejected. Frontline clashes persist, with Ukraine claiming defensive gains but Russia advancing in eastern regions, reflecting irreconcilable positions on NATO ambitions, territorial integrity, and demilitarization. Traders' 74% consensus against a deal before 2027 prices in this diplomatic impasse and ongoing military momentum, despite intermittent contacts and potential future U.S.-Russia negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$189,132 Vol.
$189,132 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$189,132 Vol.
$189,132 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine over Easter weekend, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy after Kyiv's proposed energy infrastructure truce was ignored, underscore the absence of de-escalation amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks. Recent Reuters reports highlight Russia's insistence on Ukraine's immediate withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories as a precondition, coupled with U.S. offers linking security guarantees to territorial concessions—demands Zelenskyy has rejected. Frontline clashes persist, with Ukraine claiming defensive gains but Russia advancing in eastern regions, reflecting irreconcilable positions on NATO ambitions, territorial integrity, and demilitarization. Traders' 74% consensus against a deal before 2027 prices in this diplomatic impasse and ongoing military momentum, despite intermittent contacts and potential future U.S.-Russia negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$189,132Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine over Easter weekend, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy after Kyiv's proposed energy infrastructure truce was ignored, underscore the absence of de-escalation amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks. Recent Reuters reports highlight Russia's insistence on Ukraine's immediate withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories as a precondition, coupled with U.S. offers linking security guarantees to territorial concessions—demands Zelenskyy has rejected. Frontline clashes persist, with Ukraine claiming defensive gains but Russia advancing in eastern regions, reflecting irreconcilable positions on NATO ambitions, territorial integrity, and demilitarization. Traders' 74% consensus against a deal before 2027 prices in this diplomatic impasse and ongoing military momentum, despite intermittent contacts and potential future U.S.-Russia negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,132Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukraine over Easter weekend, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy after Kyiv's proposed energy infrastructure truce was ignored, underscore the absence of de-escalation amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks. Recent Reuters reports highlight Russia's insistence on Ukraine's immediate withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories as a precondition, coupled with U.S. offers linking security guarantees to territorial concessions—demands Zelenskyy has rejected. Frontline clashes persist, with Ukraine claiming defensive gains but Russia advancing in eastern regions, reflecting irreconcilable positions on NATO ambitions, territorial integrity, and demilitarization. Traders' 74% consensus against a deal before 2027 prices in this diplomatic impasse and ongoing military momentum, despite intermittent contacts and potential future U.S.-Russia negotiations.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions