Recent Russian airstrikes during Easter holidays, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy, have underscored Moscow's rejection of truce proposals amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks, driving trader consensus toward a 70.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. Kremlin demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawals from remaining Donbas areas remain unmet, while Ukraine offers concessions that Russia dismisses. Ongoing Russian offensives in Pokrovsk and Luhansk—where Moscow claimed full control on April 4—coupled with Ukrainian mid-range strikes on Russian assets, signal persistent frontline intensity with minimal territorial shifts in March. Zelenskyy's upcoming Türkiye visit may test diplomatic channels, but entrenched positions and active hostilities temper prospects for resolution before 2026 closes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoSim
$12,439,734 Vol.
$12,439,734 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Ganhe 4%
Sim
$12,439,734 Vol.
$12,439,734 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Ganhe 4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent Russian airstrikes during Easter holidays, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy, have underscored Moscow's rejection of truce proposals amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks, driving trader consensus toward a 70.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. Kremlin demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawals from remaining Donbas areas remain unmet, while Ukraine offers concessions that Russia dismisses. Ongoing Russian offensives in Pokrovsk and Luhansk—where Moscow claimed full control on April 4—coupled with Ukrainian mid-range strikes on Russian assets, signal persistent frontline intensity with minimal territorial shifts in March. Zelenskyy's upcoming Türkiye visit may test diplomatic channels, but entrenched positions and active hostilities temper prospects for resolution before 2026 closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,439,734Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent Russian airstrikes during Easter holidays, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy, have underscored Moscow's rejection of truce proposals amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks, driving trader consensus toward a 70.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. Kremlin demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawals from remaining Donbas areas remain unmet, while Ukraine offers concessions that Russia dismisses. Ongoing Russian offensives in Pokrovsk and Luhansk—where Moscow claimed full control on April 4—coupled with Ukrainian mid-range strikes on Russian assets, signal persistent frontline intensity with minimal territorial shifts in March. Zelenskyy's upcoming Türkiye visit may test diplomatic channels, but entrenched positions and active hostilities temper prospects for resolution before 2026 closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$12,439,734Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent Russian airstrikes during Easter holidays, dubbed an "escalation" by President Zelenskyy, have underscored Moscow's rejection of truce proposals amid stalled U.S.-mediated peace talks, driving trader consensus toward a 70.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end. Kremlin demands for Ukrainian troop withdrawals from remaining Donbas areas remain unmet, while Ukraine offers concessions that Russia dismisses. Ongoing Russian offensives in Pokrovsk and Luhansk—where Moscow claimed full control on April 4—coupled with Ukrainian mid-range strikes on Russian assets, signal persistent frontline intensity with minimal territorial shifts in March. Zelenskyy's upcoming Türkiye visit may test diplomatic channels, but entrenched positions and active hostilities temper prospects for resolution before 2026 closes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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