Trader consensus implies a 98.4% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin's rejection of recent limited truce proposals, including Zelenskiy's Easter energy halt relayed through US mediators on March 31. Moscow reiterated maximalist demands for immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, while April 1 US-Ukraine talks yielded no Russian concessions amid paused trilateral negotiations due to Middle East escalations. Ongoing frontline clashes and stalled diplomacy underscore the impasse, with historical patterns of protracted stalemates reinforcing skepticism. Late-breaking scenarios like a surprise summit, major territorial shift, or intensified sanctions could still pivot odds before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoCessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até 30 de abril de 2026?
Cessar-fogo Rússia x Ucrânia até 30 de abril de 2026?
Sim
$1,935,056 Vol.
$1,935,056 Vol.
30 abr 2026
Sim
$1,935,056 Vol.
$1,935,056 Vol.
30 abr 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 98.4% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin's rejection of recent limited truce proposals, including Zelenskiy's Easter energy halt relayed through US mediators on March 31. Moscow reiterated maximalist demands for immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, while April 1 US-Ukraine talks yielded no Russian concessions amid paused trilateral negotiations due to Middle East escalations. Ongoing frontline clashes and stalled diplomacy underscore the impasse, with historical patterns of protracted stalemates reinforcing skepticism. Late-breaking scenarios like a surprise summit, major territorial shift, or intensified sanctions could still pivot odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$1,935,056Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus implies a 98.4% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin's rejection of recent limited truce proposals, including Zelenskiy's Easter energy halt relayed through US mediators on March 31. Moscow reiterated maximalist demands for immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, while April 1 US-Ukraine talks yielded no Russian concessions amid paused trilateral negotiations due to Middle East escalations. Ongoing frontline clashes and stalled diplomacy underscore the impasse, with historical patterns of protracted stalemates reinforcing skepticism. Late-breaking scenarios like a surprise summit, major territorial shift, or intensified sanctions could still pivot odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$1,936,167Data de Término
30 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 98.4% probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, anchored by the Kremlin's rejection of recent limited truce proposals, including Zelenskiy's Easter energy halt relayed through US mediators on March 31. Moscow reiterated maximalist demands for immediate Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas territories, while April 1 US-Ukraine talks yielded no Russian concessions amid paused trilateral negotiations due to Middle East escalations. Ongoing frontline clashes and stalled diplomacy underscore the impasse, with historical patterns of protracted stalemates reinforcing skepticism. Late-breaking scenarios like a surprise summit, major territorial shift, or intensified sanctions could still pivot odds before the deadline.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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