Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against a Ukraine peace referendum passing before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the absence of a ceasefire prerequisite insisted upon by President Zelenskyy. February reports of U.S. pressure under the Trump administration for spring elections and a referendum vote—potentially by May 15—faded without announcement or breakthrough, as trilateral negotiations ended inconclusively on February 18 amid disagreements over territorial concessions like Donbas. Ukraine's electoral commission ruled out 2026 votes absent six months of ceasefire, while recent polls show public referendum readiness but NGOs deem wartime voting unlawful. Russia's fresh two-month Donbas withdrawal demand underscores ongoing escalation, with historical mediation failures reinforcing trader skepticism for any pre-2027 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoO referendo de paz na Ucrânia foi aprovado antes de 2027?
O referendo de paz na Ucrânia foi aprovado antes de 2027?
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A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87% implied probability against a Ukraine peace referendum passing before 2027, driven by stalled Russia-Ukraine peace talks and the absence of a ceasefire prerequisite insisted upon by President Zelenskyy. February reports of U.S. pressure under the Trump administration for spring elections and a referendum vote—potentially by May 15—faded without announcement or breakthrough, as trilateral negotiations ended inconclusively on February 18 amid disagreements over territorial concessions like Donbas. Ukraine's electoral commission ruled out 2026 votes absent six months of ceasefire, while recent polls show public referendum readiness but NGOs deem wartime voting unlawful. Russia's fresh two-month Donbas withdrawal demand underscores ongoing escalation, with historical mediation failures reinforcing trader skepticism for any pre-2027 resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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